🏈 Fan Watch

#9Notre Dame Fighting Irish

7–2 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
The Week 12 recap

Notre Dame beat Pittsburgh. Playoff odds moved from 70% to 68%.

The FBS Independents title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
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ABC
playoff chanceEntering70%Win74%Loss18%
Notre Dame
Notre Dame 92%Pittsburgh 8%
Pittsburgh
Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Notre Dame wanted
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ESPN
Impact 1
Rooted for
Florida
at
Ole Miss
Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.1-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection74% if Florida won69% with the other result5.1-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 2
Rooted for
Minnesota
at
Oregon
Final · Minnesota 13–42 OregonWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.7-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection74% if Minnesota won70% with the other result4.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 3
Utah
at
Rooted for
Baylor
Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if Baylor won69% with the other result2.6-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 4
Rooted for
TCU
at
BYU
Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.3-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection71% if TCU won69% with the other result2.3-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 5
Rooted for
NC State
at
Miami
Final · NC State 7–41 MiamiWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if NC State won69% with the other result2.1-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 6
Rooted for
South Carolina
at
Texas A&M
Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection71% if South Carolina won69% with the other result1.6-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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BTN
Impact 7
Rooted for
Wisconsin
at
Indiana
Final · Wisconsin 7–31 IndianaWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.0-point first-round-bye boost

Indiana won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection9% if Wisconsin won6% with the other result3-point differenceNotre Dame first-round bye chance
50 other games had little impact
Iowa at USC · BTN
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Colorado State at New Mexico
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Clemson at Louisville · ESPN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
South Florida at Navy · ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network
Virginia at Duke · ESPN2
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
App State at James Madison · ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1
The rooting list was:Notre Dame, then Florida, Minnesota, Baylor, TCU, NC State, South Carolina, Wisconsin.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.