🏈 Fan Watch

#9Notre Dame Fighting Irish

8–2 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 13 · 2025
The Week 13 recap

Notre Dame beat Syracuse. Playoff odds moved from 68% to 67%.

The FBS Independents title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

Syracuse at Notre Dame
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NBC
playoff chanceEntering68%Win68%Loss16%
Syracuse
Syracuse <1%Notre Dame >99%
Notre Dame
Final · Syracuse 7–70 Notre DameWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Notre Dame wanted
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ESPN2
Impact 1
Rooted for
Kansas State
at
Utah
Final · Kansas State 47–51 UtahWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.7-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if Kansas State won68% with the other result4.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 2
Rooted for
Missouri
at
Oklahoma
Final · Missouri 6–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.4-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection71% if Missouri won67% with the other result4.4-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 3
Miami
at
Rooted for
Virginia Tech
Final · Miami 34–17 Virginia TechWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.7-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if Virginia Tech won68% with the other result3.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 4
BYU
at
Rooted for
Cincinnati
Final · BYU 26–14 CincinnatiWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.4-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Cincinnati won67% with the other result3.4-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 5
Rooted for
Kentucky
at
Vanderbilt
Final · Kentucky 17–45 VanderbiltWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.0-point playoff boost

Vanderbilt won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection71% if Kentucky won68% with the other result3-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 6
Rooted for
Louisville
at
SMU
Final · Louisville 6–38 SMUWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

SMU won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Louisville won68% with the other result2-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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BTN
Impact 7
Michigan
at
Rooted for
Maryland
Final · Michigan 45–20 MarylandWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Michigan won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if Maryland won68% with the other result1.3-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
52 other games had little impact
Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Akron at Bowling Green · ESPNU
Massachusetts at Ohio · CBSSN
Western Michigan at Northern Illinois · ESPN2
Miami (OH) at Buffalo · ESPN2
Central Michigan at Kent State · ESPNU
Louisiana at Arkansas State · ESPN
Florida State at NC State · ESPN
Hawai'i at UNLV · FS1
Minnesota at Northwestern · BTN
Rutgers at Ohio State · FOX
Delaware at Wake Forest · ACC Network
Kansas at Iowa State · FS1
Tulsa at Army · CBSSN
Charlotte at Georgia · SEC Network
Washington State at James Madison · ESPN+
Baylor at Arizona · TNT
Old Dominion at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Missouri State at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Nevada at Wyoming
Ball State at Toledo · ESPN+
Marshall at App State · ESPN+
UConn at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Liberty at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
New Mexico State at UTEP · ESPN+
South Florida at UAB · ESPN+
Arkansas at Texas · ABC
USC at Oregon · CBS
Michigan State at Iowa · FS1
Duke at North Carolina · ACC Network
Jacksonville State at Florida International · CBSSN
Southern Miss at South Alabama · ESPN+
East Carolina at UTSA · ESPN+
Tulane at Temple · ESPNU
TCU at Houston · FOX
Oklahoma State at UCF · ESPN+
Georgia State at Troy · ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina · SEC Network
UL Monroe at Texas State · ESPN+
Nebraska at Penn State · NBC
New Mexico at Air Force · CBSSN
Colorado State at Boise State · FS1
Tennessee at Florida · ABC
Illinois at Wisconsin · BTN
California at Stanford · ACC Network
North Texas at Rice · ESPNU
Western Kentucky at LSU · SEC Network
Arizona State at Colorado · ESPN2
Washington at UCLA · NBC
Utah State at Fresno State · CBSSN
San José State at San Diego State · FS1
The rooting list was:Notre Dame, then Kansas State, Missouri, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati, Kentucky, Louisville, Maryland.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.