The CFP race

8Ole Miss10–177%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Oklahoma8–259%

→

1Ohio State10–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Georgia9–195%

First round · at the 5 seed

12James Madison9–139%

→

4Texas Tech10–193%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon9–170%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Utah8–243%

→

3Texas A&M10–099%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Alabama8–251%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Notre Dame8–268%

→

2Indiana11–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#6Ole Miss10–1 · SEC▲ +4pp77%

#7Oregon9–1 · Big Ten▲ +5pp70%

#9Notre Dame8–2 · FBS Independents▼ −1pp68%

#8Oklahoma8–2 · SEC▲ +19pp59%

#10Alabama8–2 · SEC▼ −36pp51%

#12Utah8–2 · Big 12▼ −3pp43%

James Madison9–1 · Sun Belt▲ +4pp39%

#13Miami8–2 · ACC▲ +14pp39%

#11BYU9–1 · Big 12▲ +6pp36%

North Texas9–1 · American Athletic▲ +11pp35%

#19Virginia9–2 · ACC▲ +20pp30%

SMU7–3 · ACC▲ +4pp27%

#14Vanderbilt8–2 · SEC▼ −2pp24%

#16Georgia Tech9–1 · ACC▲ +4pp24%

#24Tulane8–2 · American Athletic▲ +19pp20%

#15USC8–2 · Big Ten▲ +10pp19%

…

… · CBS

#15USCat#7Oregon

Final · USC 27–42 Oregon

…

… · ABC

#22Missouriat#8Oklahoma

Final · Missouri 6–17 Oklahoma

…

… · ESPN

Pittsburghat#16Georgia Tech

Final · Pittsburgh 42–28 Georgia Tech

…

… · ESPN

#13MiamiatVirginia Tech

Final · Miami 34–17 Virginia Tech

…

… · NBC

Syracuseat#9Notre Dame

Final · Syracuse 7–70 Notre Dame

…

… · ESPN2

Kansas Stateat#12Utah

Final · Kansas State 47–51 Utah

…

… · FOX

#11BYUatCincinnati

Final · BYU 26–14 Cincinnati

…

… · ESPN2

LouisvilleatSMU

Final · Louisville 6–38 SMU

…

… · ESPNU

North TexasatRice

Final · North Texas 56–24 Rice

…

… · ESPN+

Washington StateatJames Madison

Final · Washington State 20–24 James Madison

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.