๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

North Texas Mean Green

9โ€“1 ยท 5โ€“1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 13 ยท 2025
The Week 13 recap

North Texas beat Rice. Playoff odds moved from 35% to 40%.

Your game

North Texas at Rice
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American title-game chanceEntering89%Win95%Loss5%
North Texas
North Texas 93%Rice 7%
Rice
Final ยท North Texas 56โ€“24 RiceWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result North Texas wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Washington State
at
James Madison
Final ยท Washington State 20โ€“24 James MadisonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 14.0-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection48% if Washington State won34% with the other result14-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
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Impact 2
South Florida
at
Rooted for
UAB
Final ยท South Florida 48โ€“18 UABWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.4-point title-game boost

South Florida won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection94% if UAB won89% with the other result5.4-point differenceNorth Texas American title-game chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
at
Georgia Tech
Final ยท Pittsburgh 42โ€“28 Georgia TechWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.9-point playoff boost

Pittsburgh won, thinning out the at-large competition for North Texas's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection36% if Pittsburgh won35% with the other result1.9-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
Hawai'i
at
UNLV
Final ยท Hawai'i 10โ€“38 UNLVWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

UNLV won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection37% if Hawai'i won35% with the other result1.4-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
55 other games had little impact
Akron at Bowling Green ยท ESPNU
Massachusetts at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Western Michigan at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN2
Miami (OH) at Buffalo ยท ESPN2
Central Michigan at Kent State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana at Arkansas State ยท ESPN
Florida State at NC State ยท ESPN
Missouri at Oklahoma ยท ABC
Minnesota at Northwestern ยท BTN
Rutgers at Ohio State ยท FOX
Louisville at SMU ยท ESPN2
Miami at Virginia Tech ยท ESPN
Delaware at Wake Forest ยท ACC Network
Kansas at Iowa State ยท FS1
Tulsa at Army ยท CBSSN
Charlotte at Georgia ยท SEC Network
Baylor at Arizona ยท TNT
Old Dominion at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Missouri State at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Nevada at Wyoming
Ball State at Toledo ยท ESPN+
Marshall at App State ยท ESPN+
UConn at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Louisiana Tech ยท ESPN+
Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at UTEP ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at Texas ยท ABC
Kentucky at Vanderbilt ยท ESPN
USC at Oregon ยท CBS
Michigan State at Iowa ยท FS1
Duke at North Carolina ยท ACC Network
Syracuse at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Jacksonville State at Florida International ยท CBSSN
Southern Miss at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
East Carolina at UTSA ยท ESPN+
Tulane at Temple ยท ESPNU
Michigan at Maryland ยท BTN
TCU at Houston ยท FOX
Oklahoma State at UCF ยท ESPN+
Kansas State at Utah ยท ESPN2
Georgia State at Troy ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
UL Monroe at Texas State ยท ESPN+
Nebraska at Penn State ยท NBC
New Mexico at Air Force ยท CBSSN
Colorado State at Boise State ยท FS1
Tennessee at Florida ยท ABC
Illinois at Wisconsin ยท BTN
California at Stanford ยท ACC Network
Western Kentucky at LSU ยท SEC Network
BYU at Cincinnati ยท FOX
Arizona State at Colorado ยท ESPN2
Washington at UCLA ยท NBC
Utah State at Fresno State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at San Diego State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:North Texas, then Washington State, UAB, Pittsburgh, Hawai'i.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.