๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

North Texas Mean Green

8โ€“1 ยท 4โ€“1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 12 ยท 2025
The Week 12 recap

North Texas beat UAB. Playoff odds moved from 25% to 35%.

Your game

North Texas at UAB
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American title-game chanceEntering80%Win88%Loss10%
North Texas
North Texas 89%UAB 11%
UAB
Final ยท North Texas 53โ€“24 UABWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result North Texas wanted
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Impact 1
South Florida
at
Rooted for
Navy
Final ยท South Florida 38โ€“41 NavyWish granted โœ“
Projected 5.6-point playoff boost

Navy won, making North Texas's earlier win over them look better.

Entering-week projection29% if Navy won23% with the other result5.6-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
App State
at
James Madison
Final ยท App State 10โ€“58 James MadisonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.4-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection30% if App State won25% with the other result5.4-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Florida Atlantic
at
Tulane
Final ยท Florida Atlantic 24โ€“35 TulaneWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.6-point title-game boost

Tulane won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection83% if Florida Atlantic won80% with the other result3.6-point differenceNorth Texas American title-game chance
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Impact 4
Boise State
at
Rooted for
San Diego State
Final ยท Boise State 7โ€“17 San Diego StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.2-point playoff boost

San Diego State won, thinning out the at-large competition for North Texas's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection26% if San Diego State won24% with the other result2.2-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
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Impact 5
Memphis
at
Rooted for
East Carolina
Final ยท Memphis 27โ€“31 East CarolinaWish granted โœ“
Projected 3.3-point title-game boost

Memphis lost, improving North Texas's place in the American Athletic standings.

Entering-week projection82% if East Carolina won78% with the other result3.3-point differenceNorth Texas American title-game chance
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Impact 6
NC State
at
Rooted for
Miami
Final ยท NC State 7โ€“41 MiamiWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Miami won, thinning out the at-large competition for North Texas's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection25% if Miami won23% with the other result2-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
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Impact 7
Virginia
at
Rooted for
Duke
Final ยท Virginia 34โ€“17 DukeWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection25% if Duke won24% with the other result1.7-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
50 other games had little impact
Kent State at Akron ยท ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan ยท CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion ยท ESPN
Clemson at Louisville ยท ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon ยท FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana ยท BTN
Michigan at Northwestern ยท FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh ยท ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati ยท FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Air Force at UConn ยท CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State ยท truTV
Marshall at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama ยท ABC
Penn State at Michigan State ยท CBS
Maryland at Illinois ยท FS1
Iowa at USC ยท BTN
Georgia Tech at Boston College ยท ACC Network
UCF at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
San Josรฉ State at Nevada ยท CBSSN
South Alabama at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest ยท The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Purdue at Washington ยท FS1
Utah at Baylor ยท ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV ยท CBSSN
Texas at Georgia ยท ABC
UCLA at Ohio State ยท NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State ยท The CW Network
TCU at BYU ยท ESPN
Wyoming at Fresno State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:North Texas, then Navy, App State, Florida Atlantic, San Diego State, East Carolina, Miami, Duke.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.