North Texas Mean Green

7–1 · 3–1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC

In the books

WEEK 10 · 2025

The Week 10 recap

North Texas beat Navy. Playoff odds moved from 13% to 21%.

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ESPN2

American title-game chanceEntering50%Win64%Loss3%

Navy

Navy 22%North Texas 78%

North Texas

Final · Navy 17–31 North TexasWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ESPN2

Impact 1

Memphis

at

Rooted for

Rice

Final · Memphis 38–14 RiceWent the other way ✗

Projected 11.5-point title-game boost

Memphis won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if Rice won50% with the other result11-point differenceNorth Texas American title-game chance

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ESPN

Impact 2

Tulane

at

Rooted for

UTSA

Final · Tulane 26–48 UTSAWish granted ✓

Projected 6.6-point title-game boost

Tulane lost, improving North Texas's place in the American Athletic standings.

Entering-week projection54% if UTSA won47% with the other result6.6-point differenceNorth Texas American title-game chance

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FS1

Impact 3

Rooted for

Fresno State

at

Boise State

Final · Fresno State 30–7 Boise StateWish granted ✓

Projected 3.5-point playoff boost

Fresno State won, thinning out the at-large competition for North Texas's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection16% if Fresno State won13% with the other result3.5-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance

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ESPN2

Impact 4

James Madison

at

Rooted for

Texas State

Final · James Madison 52–20 Texas StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.7-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection14% if Texas State won12% with the other result2.7-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance

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CBSSN

Impact 5

Rooted for

UAB

at

UConn

Final · UAB 19–38 UConnWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

UConn won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection14% if UAB won13% with the other result1.4-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance

46 other games had little impact

East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+

UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU

Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2

Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN

Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2

North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN

Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN

Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC

Penn State at Ohio State · FOX

Rutgers at Illinois · NBC

Duke at Clemson · ACC Network

Miami at SMU · ESPN

UCF at Baylor · ESPNU

West Virginia at Houston · FS1

Army at Air Force · CBS

Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+

Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT

Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network

New Mexico at UNLV

Georgia at Florida · ABC

Indiana at Maryland · CBS

Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN

Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network

Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN

Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX

Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN

New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+

Virginia at California · ESPN2

Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network

Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+

Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU

South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN

Purdue at Michigan · BTN

Arizona at Colorado · FS1

Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN

Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network

Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC

USC at Nebraska · NBC

Washington State at Oregon State · CBS

Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network

Georgia Tech at NC State · ESPN2

Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU

Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN

Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.