The CFP race

8Georgia Tech8–045%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Miami6–147%

→

1Ohio State7–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Texas A&M8–088%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Texas Tech7–148%

→

4Georgia6–190%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Oregon7–183%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Notre Dame5–271%

→

3Alabama7–190%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Ole Miss7–179%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Vanderbilt7–137%

→

2Indiana8–097%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#6Oregon7–1 · Big Ten▼ −4pp83%

#7Ole Miss7–1 · SEC▲ +5pp79%

#12Notre Dame5–2 · FBS Independents▲ +11pp71%

#13Texas Tech7–1 · Big 12▲ +4pp48%

#10Miami6–1 · ACC▼ −10pp47%

#8Georgia Tech8–0 · ACC▲ +2pp45%

#9Vanderbilt7–1 · SEC▲ +5pp37%

#14Tennessee6–2 · SEC▲ +13pp29%

Boise State6–2 · Mountain West▼ −1pp28%

James Madison6–1 · Sun Belt▲ +3pp27%

#16Louisville6–1 · ACC▲ +5pp23%

#15Virginia7–1 · ACC▲ +7pp19%

#25Memphis7–1 · American Athletic▲ +6pp18%

BYU8–0 · Big 12▼ −6pp17%

#24Utah6–2 · Big 12▲ +7pp16%

…

… · ABC

#9Vanderbiltat#20Texas

Final · Vanderbilt 31–34 Texas

…

… · ABC

#18Oklahomaat#14Tennessee

Final · Oklahoma 33–27 Tennessee

…

… · ESPN

#10MiamiatSMU

Final · Miami 20–26 SMU

…

… · FOX

#13Texas TechatKansas State

Final · Texas Tech 43–20 Kansas State

…

… · ESPN

#17Cincinnatiat#24Utah

Final · Cincinnati 14–45 Utah

…

… · ESPN

South Carolinaat#7Ole Miss

Final · South Carolina 14–30 Ole Miss

…

… · ESPN2

#8Georgia TechatNC State

Final · Georgia Tech 36–48 NC State

…

… · ESPN

#12Notre DameatBoston College

Final · Notre Dame 25–10 Boston College

…

… · ESPN2

#15VirginiaatCalifornia

Final · Virginia 31–21 California

…

… · The CW Network

#16LouisvilleatVirginia Tech

Final · Louisville 28–16 Virginia Tech

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.