🏈 Fan Watch

#9Vanderbilt Commodores

7–1 · 3–1 SEC
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
The Week 10 recap

Vanderbilt lost to Texas. Playoff odds moved from 37% to 10%.

Your game

Vanderbilt at Texas
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ABC
playoff chanceEntering37%Win62%Loss30%
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt 21%Texas 79%
Texas
Final · Vanderbilt 31–34 TexasWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Vanderbilt wanted
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ABC
Impact 1
Georgia
at
Rooted for
Florida
Final · Georgia 24–20 FloridaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.2-point playoff boost

Georgia won instead, so Vanderbilt did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection39% if Florida won37% with the other result2.2-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 2
Rooted for
South Carolina
at
Ole Miss
Final · South Carolina 14–30 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.2-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Vanderbilt did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection39% if South Carolina won37% with the other result2.2-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 3
Virginia
at
Rooted for
California
Final · Virginia 31–21 CaliforniaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so Vanderbilt did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection38% if California won36% with the other result1.8-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 4
Georgia Tech
at
Rooted for
NC State
Final · Georgia Tech 36–48 NC StateWish granted ✓
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

NC State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Vanderbilt's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection38% if NC State won36% with the other result1.5-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 5
Miami
at
Rooted for
SMU
Final · Miami 20–26 SMUWish granted ✓
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

SMU won, thinning out the at-large competition for Vanderbilt's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection38% if SMU won36% with the other result1.4-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 6
Oklahoma
at
Rooted for
Tennessee
Final · Oklahoma 33–27 TennesseeWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Vanderbilt did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection37% if Tennessee won36% with the other result1.2-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
45 other games had little impact
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
James Madison at Texas State · ESPN2
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2
Tulane at UTSA · ESPN
Memphis at Rice · ESPN2
North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Penn State at Ohio State · FOX
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
Duke at Clemson · ACC Network
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
UAB at UConn · CBSSN
Army at Air Force · CBS
Navy at North Texas · ESPN2
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+
Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
New Mexico at UNLV
Indiana at Maryland · CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Fresno State at Boise State · FS1
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN
The rooting list was:Vanderbilt, then Florida, South Carolina, California, NC State, SMU, Tennessee.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.