🏈 Fan Watch

#14Vanderbilt Commodores

9–2 · 5–2 SEC
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
The Week 14 recap

Vanderbilt beat Tennessee. Playoff odds moved from 24% to 19%.

The SEC title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

Vanderbilt at Tennessee
…
…
ESPN
playoff chanceEntering24%Win57%Loss6%
Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt 35%Tennessee 65%
Tennessee
Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Vanderbilt wanted
…
…
ABC
Impact 1
Rooted for
LSU
at
Oklahoma
Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.9-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Vanderbilt did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if LSU won23% with the other result4.9-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
…
…
CBS
Impact 2
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Washington
Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.3-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Vanderbilt did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection27% if Washington won23% with the other result4.3-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
…
…
ABC
Impact 3
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Auburn
Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.1-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Vanderbilt did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection26% if Auburn won23% with the other result3.1-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
…
…
ABC
Impact 4
Ole Miss
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.1-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Vanderbilt did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection27% if Mississippi State won24% with the other result3.1-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
…
…
FOX
Impact 5
Rooted for
Ohio State
at
Michigan
Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWish granted ✓
Projected 3.0-point playoff boost

Ohio State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Vanderbilt's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection25% if Ohio State won22% with the other result3-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
…
…
ABC
Impact 6
Miami
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final · Miami 38–7 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.3-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so Vanderbilt did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection26% if Pittsburgh won23% with the other result2.3-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 7
Rooted for
Virginia Tech
at
Virginia
Final · Virginia Tech 7–27 VirginiaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so Vanderbilt did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection25% if Virginia Tech won24% with the other result1.5-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
…
…
ESPN+
Impact 8
Rooted for
South Alabama
at
Texas State
Final · South Alabama 26–49 Texas StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Texas State won instead, so Vanderbilt did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection25% if South Alabama won24% with the other result1.5-point differenceVanderbilt playoff chance
58 other games had little impact
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Iowa at Nebraska · CBS
Utah at Kansas · ESPN
Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Texas A&M at Texas · ABC
Indiana at Purdue · NBC
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia · ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UCF at BYU · ESPN2
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
UCLA at USC · NBC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
SMU at California · ESPN2
UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN
Notre Dame at Stanford · ESPN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Vanderbilt, then LSU, Washington, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, South Alabama.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.