The CFP race
the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
5 teams on the bubble entering week 14.
The bracket as of today
12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
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1
Ohio State11–0100%
Ohio State11–0100%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9
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4
Georgia10–1100%
Georgia10–1100%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
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3
Texas A&M11–0100%
Texas A&M11–0100%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
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2
Indiana11–0100%
Indiana11–0100%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10
Bubble watch
15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movement
Games of the week
ranked by playoff probability in play across the country…
… · ESPN
Temple at North Texas
Final · Temple 25–52 North Texas
144 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPN2
#21 SMU at California
Final · SMU 35–38 California
124 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
#12 Miami at #22 Pittsburgh
Final · Miami 38–7 Pittsburgh
77 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPN
#5 Texas Tech at West Virginia
Final · Texas Tech 49–0 West Virginia
95 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPN
Virginia Tech at #18 Virginia
Final · Virginia Tech 7–27 Virginia
74 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ESPNU
Charlotte at #24 Tulane
Final · Charlotte 0–27 Tulane
51 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
LSU at #8 Oklahoma
Final · LSU 13–17 Oklahoma
38 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ABC
5 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · FOX
#25 Arizona at #20 Arizona State
Final · Arizona 23–7 Arizona State
5 ppplayoff odds in play
…
… · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Duke
Final · Wake Forest 32–49 Duke
36 ppplayoff odds in play
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14).