The CFP race

8Ole Miss10–169%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Oklahoma9–265%

→

1Ohio State11–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Texas Tech10–191%

First round · at the 5 seed

12North Texas10–140%

→

4Georgia10–196%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Alabama9–259%

First round · at the 6 seed

11SMU8–357%

→

3Texas A&M11–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Oregon10–177%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Notre Dame9–267%

→

2Indiana11–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#6Oregon10–1 · Big Ten▲ +6pp77%

#7Ole Miss10–1 · SEC▼ −8pp69%

#9Notre Dame9–2 · FBS Independents▼ −1pp67%

#8Oklahoma9–2 · SEC▲ +7pp65%

#10Alabama9–2 · SEC▲ +7pp59%

#21SMU8–3 · ACC▲ +30pp57%

North Texas10–1 · American Athletic▲ +4pp40%

#11BYU10–1 · Big 12▼ −2pp34%

#12Miami9–2 · ACC▼ −5pp33%

James Madison10–1 · Sun Belt▼ −8pp31%

#13Utah9–2 · Big 12▼ −15pp28%

#14Vanderbilt9–2 · SEC24%

#18Virginia9–2 · ACC▼ −7pp23%

#24Tulane9–2 · American Athletic▲ +2pp22%

#16Texas8–3 · SEC▲ +8pp20%

#15Michigan9–2 · Big Ten▲ +11pp15%

…

… · ABC

#12Miamiat#22Pittsburgh

Final · Miami 38–7 Pittsburgh

…

… · ESPN

#14Vanderbiltat#19Tennessee

Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 Tennessee

…

… · ABC

LSUat#8Oklahoma

Final · LSU 13–17 Oklahoma

…

… · ABC

#7Ole MissatMississippi State

Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi State

…

… · FOX

#1Ohio Stateat#15Michigan

Final · Ohio State 27–9 Michigan

…

… · ABC

#10AlabamaatAuburn

Final · Alabama 27–20 Auburn

…

… · ESPN2

#21SMUatCalifornia

Final · SMU 35–38 California

…

… · CBS

#6OregonatWashington

Final · Oregon 26–14 Washington

…

… · ABC

#3Texas A&Mat#16Texas

Final · Texas A&M 17–27 Texas

…

… · ESPN

#9Notre DameatStanford

Final · Notre Dame 49–20 Stanford

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.