🏈 Fan Watch

#9Notre Dame Fighting Irish

9–2 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
The Week 14 recap

Notre Dame beat Stanford. Playoff odds moved from 67% to 53%.

The FBS Independents title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

Notre Dame at Stanford
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ESPN
playoff chanceEntering67%Win68%Loss14%
Notre Dame
Notre Dame >99%Stanford <1%
Stanford
Final · Notre Dame 49–20 StanfordWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Notre Dame wanted
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ABC
Impact 1
Rooted for
LSU
at
Oklahoma
Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Projected 7.3-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection73% if LSU won65% with the other result7.3-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 2
Ole Miss
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.7-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection73% if Mississippi State won66% with the other result6.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Auburn
Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.2-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if Auburn won66% with the other result6.2-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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CBS
Impact 4
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Washington
Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.8-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection72% if Washington won66% with the other result5.8-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 5
Vanderbilt
at
Rooted for
Tennessee
Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.1-point playoff boost

Vanderbilt won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if Tennessee won64% with the other result5.1-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 6
Rooted for
Ohio State
at
Michigan
Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWish granted ✓
Projected 4.8-point playoff boost

Ohio State won, thinning out the at-large competition for Notre Dame's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection68% if Ohio State won63% with the other result4.8-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 7
Rooted for
Texas A&M
at
Texas
Final · Texas A&M 17–27 TexasWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.2-point playoff boost

Texas won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if Texas A&M won66% with the other result3.2-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 8
Miami
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final · Miami 38–7 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.0-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if Pittsburgh won66% with the other result3-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 9
Utah
at
Rooted for
Kansas
Final · Utah 31–21 KansasWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.7-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Kansas won67% with the other result2.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 10
Rooted for
Virginia Tech
at
Virginia
Final · Virginia Tech 7–27 VirginiaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if Virginia Tech won67% with the other result2.4-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 11
Rooted for
UCF
at
BYU
Final · UCF 21–41 BYUWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if UCF won67% with the other result1.8-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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CBS
Impact 12
Iowa
at
Rooted for
Nebraska
Final · Iowa 40–16 NebraskaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Iowa won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection68% if Nebraska won67% with the other result1.3-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
54 other games had little impact
Texas Tech at West Virginia · ESPN
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Indiana at Purdue · NBC
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
UCLA at USC · NBC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
SMU at California · ESPN2
UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Notre Dame, then LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, Washington, Tennessee, Ohio State, Texas A&M, Pittsburgh, Kansas, Virginia Tech, UCF, Nebraska.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.