🏈 Fan Watch

#13Notre Dame Fighting Irish

4–2 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 8 · 2025
The Week 8 recap

Notre Dame beat USC. Playoff odds moved from 69% to 59%.

The FBS Independents title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

USC at Notre Dame
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NBC
playoff chanceEntering69%Win75%Loss23%
USC
USC 11%Notre Dame 89%
Notre Dame
Final · USC 24–34 Notre DameWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Notre Dame wanted
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Peacock
Impact 1
Rooted for
Michigan State
at
Indiana
Final · Michigan State 13–38 IndianaWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.4-point playoff boost

Indiana won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection75% if Michigan State won69% with the other result6.4-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 2
Texas A&M
at
Rooted for
Arkansas
Final · Texas A&M 45–42 ArkansasWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.7-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection71% if Arkansas won68% with the other result2.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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SEC Network
Impact 3
Missouri
at
Rooted for
Auburn
Final · Missouri 23–17 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.9-point playoff boost

Missouri won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Auburn won68% with the other result1.9-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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BTN
Impact 4
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Rutgers
Final · Oregon 56–10 RutgersWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Rutgers won69% with the other result1.8-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 5
Texas
at
Rooted for
Kentucky
Final · Texas 16–13 KentuckyWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Texas won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Kentucky won69% with the other result1.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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SEC Network
Impact 6
Oklahoma
at
Rooted for
South Carolina
Final · Oklahoma 26–7 South CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if South Carolina won68% with the other result1.4-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ACC Network
Impact 7
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
at
Syracuse
Final · Pittsburgh 30–13 SyracuseWish granted ✓
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Pittsburgh won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 12 game against Notre Dame.

Entering-week projection69% if Pittsburgh won68% with the other result1.2-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
51 other games had little impact
Louisville at Miami · ESPN
Texas Tech at Arizona State · FOX
New Mexico State at Liberty · CBSSN
Arkansas State at South Alabama · ESPN2
Florida International at Western Kentucky · ESPNU
Delaware at Jacksonville State · ESPN2
UTEP at Sam Houston · CBSSN
Tulsa at East Carolina · ESPN
Nebraska at Minnesota · FOX
San José State at Utah State · CBSSN
North Carolina at California · ESPN
LSU at Vanderbilt · ABC
Washington at Michigan · FOX
Georgia Tech at Duke · ESPN
UConn at Boston College · ACC Network
Arizona at Houston · FS1
Baylor at TCU · ESPN2
Army at Tulane · ESPNU
Central Michigan at Bowling Green · CBSSN
Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
West Virginia at UCF · TNT
Kent State at Toledo · ESPN+
Buffalo at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Purdue at Northwestern · BTN
Troy at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Ole Miss at Georgia · ABC
Ohio State at Wisconsin · CBS
SMU at Clemson · ACC Network
Wyoming at Air Force · CBSSN
UNLV at Boise State · FS1
Coastal Carolina at App State · ESPN+
Old Dominion at James Madison · ESPNU
Texas State at Marshall · ESPN+
Temple at Charlotte · ESPN+
UTSA at North Texas · ESPN+
Akron at Ball State · ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Ohio · ESPN+
Memphis at UAB · ESPN2
Mississippi State at Florida · SEC Network
Southern Miss at Louisiana · ESPN+
Washington State at Virginia · The CW Network
Penn State at Iowa · Peacock
Maryland at UCLA · FS1
Hawai'i at Colorado State
Georgia State at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Tennessee at Alabama · ABC
Florida Atlantic at South Florida · ESPNU
Utah at BYU · FOX
Cincinnati at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Nevada at New Mexico · FS1
Florida State at Stanford · ESPN
The rooting list was:Notre Dame, then Michigan State, Arkansas, Auburn, Rutgers, Kentucky, South Carolina, Pittsburgh.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.