๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#21Notre Dame Fighting Irish

2โ€“2 ยท 0โ€“0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 6 ยท 2025
The Week 6 recap

Notre Dame beat Boise State. Playoff odds moved from 60% to 65%.

The FBS Independents title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

Boise State at Notre Dame
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playoff chanceEntering60%Win61%Loss19%
Boise State
Boise State 3%Notre Dame 97%
Notre Dame
Final ยท Boise State 7โ€“28 Notre DameWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Notre Dame wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Mississippi State
at
Texas A&M
Final ยท Mississippi State 9โ€“31 Texas A&MWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection62% if Mississippi State won59% with the other result2.5-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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Impact 2
Texas
at
Rooted for
Florida
Final ยท Texas 21โ€“29 FloridaWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Florida won, thinning out the at-large competition for Notre Dame's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection61% if Florida won59% with the other result1.4-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
47 other games had little impact
Penn State at UCLA ยท CBS
Sam Houston at New Mexico State ยท CBSSN
Western Kentucky at Delaware ยท CBSSN
Charlotte at South Florida ยท ESPN2
New Mexico at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
West Virginia at BYU ยท ESPN
Colorado State at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Kentucky at Georgia ยท ABC
Wisconsin at Michigan ยท FOX
Illinois at Purdue ยท BTN
Boston College at Pittsburgh ยท ACC Network
Clemson at North Carolina ยท ESPN
Kansas State at Baylor ยท ESPN+
Iowa State at Cincinnati ยท ESPN2
Air Force at Navy ยท CBS
Army at UAB ยท ESPNU
Ohio at Ball State ยท CBSSN
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech ยท The CW Network
UTSA at Temple ยท ESPN+
Western Michigan at Massachusetts ยท ESPN+
Oklahoma State at Arizona ยท truTV
Vanderbilt at Alabama ยท ABC
Washington at Maryland ยท BTN
UL Monroe at Northwestern ยท BTN
Oregon State at App State ยท ESPN+
Virginia at Louisville ยท ESPN2
Syracuse at SMU ยท ACC Network
Florida International at UConn ยท CBSSN
James Madison at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
Central Michigan at Akron ยท ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Kent State at Oklahoma ยท SEC Network
Michigan State at Nebraska ยท FS1
Texas State at Arkansas State ยท ESPNU
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Texas Tech at Houston ยท ESPN
UNLV at Wyoming ยท CBSSN
South Alabama at Troy ยท ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Rice ยท ESPN+
Minnesota at Ohio State ยท NBC
Miami at Florida State ยท ABC
Colorado at TCU ยท FOX
Kansas at UCF ยท ESPN2
Tulsa at Memphis ยท ESPNU
Duke at California ยท ESPN
Nevada at Fresno State ยท CBSSN
The rooting list was:Notre Dame, then Mississippi State, Florida.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.