🏈 Fan Watch

#8Notre Dame Fighting Irish

0–1 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 3 · 2025
The Week 3 recap

Notre Dame lost to Texas A&M. Playoff odds moved from 97% to 73%.

The FBS Independents title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

Texas A&M at Notre Dame
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NBC
first-round bye chanceEntering65%Win67%Loss35%
Texas A&M
Texas A&M 5%Notre Dame 95%
Notre Dame
Final · Texas A&M 41–40 Notre DameWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Notre Dame wanted
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FOX
Impact 1
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Northwestern
Final · Oregon 34–14 NorthwesternWent the other way ✗
Projected 4.2-point first-round-bye boost

Oregon won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if Northwestern won65% with the other result4.2-point differenceNotre Dame first-round bye chance
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Peacock
Impact 2
Rooted for
Ohio
at
Ohio State
Final · Ohio 9–37 Ohio StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.1-point first-round-bye boost

Ohio State won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection68% if Ohio won65% with the other result3.1-point differenceNotre Dame first-round bye chance
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ABC
Impact 3
Georgia
at
Rooted for
Tennessee
Final · Georgia 44–41 TennesseeWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.9-point first-round-bye boost

Georgia won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if Tennessee won64% with the other result2.9-point differenceNotre Dame first-round bye chance
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ESPN
Impact 4
Rooted for
Arkansas
at
Ole Miss
Final · Arkansas 35–41 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.2-point first-round-bye boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if Arkansas won65% with the other result2.2-point differenceNotre Dame first-round bye chance
42 other games had little impact
South Florida at Miami · The CW Network
NC State at Wake Forest · ESPN
Colorado at Houston · ESPN
Kansas State at Arizona · FOX
New Mexico at UCLA · BTN
Wisconsin at Alabama · ABC
Oklahoma at Temple · ESPN2
Central Michigan at Michigan · BTN
Clemson at Georgia Tech · ESPN
Memphis at Troy · ESPNU
Buffalo at Kent State · CBSSN
South Alabama at Auburn · SEC Network
Louisiana at Missouri · ESPN+
UConn at Delaware · ESPN+
USC at Purdue · CBS
Oregon State at Texas Tech · FOX
Washington State at North Texas · ESPNU
SMU at Missouri State · CBSSN
Pittsburgh at West Virginia · ESPN
Iowa State at Arkansas State · ESPN2
UTEP at Texas · SEC Network
Liberty at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Middle Tennessee at Nevada
Florida Atlantic at Florida International · ESPN+
Western Michigan at Illinois · FS1
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech · ACC Network
Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
App State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky · ESPNU
Florida at LSU · ABC
Massachusetts at Iowa · BTN
New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
East Carolina at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Vanderbilt at South Carolina · SEC Network
Duke at Tulane · ESPN2
Utah at Wyoming · CBSSN
Navy at Tulsa · ESPN+
Akron at UAB · ESPN+
Air Force at Utah State · FS1
Minnesota at California · ESPN
Boston College at Stanford · ACC Network
Texas State at Arizona State · TNT
The rooting list was:Notre Dame, then Northwestern, Ohio, Tennessee, Arkansas.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.