The CFP race

8Miami2–076%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Ole Miss2–051%

→

1Penn State2–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Oregon2–0>99%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Jacksonville State1–119%

→

4Georgia2–0>99%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Texas1–197%

First round · at the 6 seed

11Louisville2–021%

→

3Notre Dame0–1100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7LSU2–093%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Alabama1–141%

→

2Ohio State2–0100%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#5Miami2–0 · ACC▲ +4pp76%

#17Ole Miss2–0 · SEC▼ −29pp51%

#19Alabama1–1 · SEC▲ +34pp41%

Louisville2–0 · ACC▲ +4pp21%

Jacksonville State1–1 · Conference USA▲ +2pp19%

Tulane2–0 · American Athletic▼ −2pp18%

USC2–0 · Big Ten▲ +1pp17%

TCU1–0 · Big 12▼ −1pp17%

#12Clemson1–1 · ACC▼ −8pp17%

SMU1–1 · ACC▼ −3pp16%

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3).