The CFP race

8LSU2–057%

First round · at the 8 seed

9Ole Miss2–041%

→

1Penn State2–098%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9

5Oregon2–089%

First round · at the 5 seed

12Tennessee2–021%

→

4Georgia2–091%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12

6Miami2–054%

First round · at the 6 seed

11USC2–024%

→

3Notre Dame0–197%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11

7Texas1–168%

First round · at the 7 seed

10Alabama1–138%

→

2Ohio State2–097%

Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10

#7Texas1–1 · SEC▲ +8pp68%

#3LSU2–0 · SEC▼ −2pp57%

#5Miami2–0 · ACC▲ +4pp54%

#17Ole Miss2–0 · SEC▼ −12pp41%

#19Alabama1–1 · SEC▲ +21pp38%

USC2–0 · Big Ten▼ −1pp24%

#15Tennessee2–0 · SEC▼ −1pp21%

#22Indiana2–0 · Big Ten▲ +2pp21%

#12Clemson1–1 · ACC▼ −9pp20%

Louisville2–0 · ACC▲ +2pp20%

#11South Carolina2–0 · SEC▼ −5pp19%

Jacksonville State1–1 · Conference USA18%

TCU1–0 · Big 12▼ −1pp18%

#9Illinois2–0 · Big Ten▲ +11pp17%

SMU1–1 · ACC▼ −7pp16%

…

… · ABC

#6Georgiaat#15Tennessee

Final · Georgia 44–41 Tennessee

…

… · The CW Network

#18South Floridaat#5Miami

Final · South Florida 12–49 Miami

…

… · ESPN

Arkansasat#17Ole Miss

Final · Arkansas 35–41 Ole Miss

…

… · NBC

#16Texas A&Mat#8Notre Dame

Final · Texas A&M 41–40 Notre Dame

…

… · ABC

Floridaat#3LSU

Final · Florida 10–20 LSU

…

… · ESPN

#12ClemsonatGeorgia Tech

Final · Clemson 21–24 Georgia Tech

…

… · ABC

Wisconsinat#19Alabama

Final · Wisconsin 14–38 Alabama

…

… · Peacock

Ohioat#1Ohio State

Final · Ohio 9–37 Ohio State

…

… · SEC Network

Vanderbiltat#11South Carolina

Final · Vanderbilt 31–7 South Carolina

…

… · TNT

Texas StateatArizona State

Final · Texas State 15–34 Arizona State

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.