#4Oregon Ducks

2–0 · 0–0 BIG TEN

In the books

WEEK 3 · 2025

The Week 3 recap

Oregon beat Northwestern. Playoff odds moved from 89% to 81%.

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FOX

Big Ten title-game chanceEntering43%Win44%Loss16%

Oregon

Oregon 95%Northwestern 5%

Northwestern

Final · Oregon 34–14 NorthwesternWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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NBC

Impact 1

Rooted for

Texas A&M

at

Notre Dame

Final · Texas A&M 41–40 Notre DameWish granted ✓

Projected 5.7-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won, helping protect Oregon's path to a top-four seed and first-round bye.

Entering-week projection50% if Texas A&M won45% with the other result5.7-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

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CBS

Impact 2

USC

at

Rooted for

Purdue

Final · USC 33–17 PurdueWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.7-point title-game boost

USC won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection45% if Purdue won43% with the other result2.7-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance

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ABC

Impact 3

Georgia

at

Rooted for

Tennessee

Final · Georgia 44–41 TennesseeWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.3-point first-round-bye boost

Georgia won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection47% if Tennessee won44% with the other result2.3-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

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Peacock

Impact 4

Rooted for

Ohio

at

Ohio State

Final · Ohio 9–37 Ohio StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.3-point first-round-bye boost

Ohio State won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection47% if Ohio won45% with the other result2.3-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

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ABC

Impact 5

Rooted for

Wisconsin

at

Alabama

Final · Wisconsin 14–38 AlabamaWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection90% if Wisconsin won89% with the other result1.2-point differenceOregon playoff chance

41 other games had little impact

NC State at Wake Forest · ESPN

Colorado at Houston · ESPN

Kansas State at Arizona · FOX

New Mexico at UCLA · BTN

Oklahoma at Temple · ESPN2

Central Michigan at Michigan · BTN

Clemson at Georgia Tech · ESPN

Memphis at Troy · ESPNU

Buffalo at Kent State · CBSSN

South Alabama at Auburn · SEC Network

Louisiana at Missouri · ESPN+

UConn at Delaware · ESPN+

Oregon State at Texas Tech · FOX

Washington State at North Texas · ESPNU

SMU at Missouri State · CBSSN

Pittsburgh at West Virginia · ESPN

Iowa State at Arkansas State · ESPN2

UTEP at Texas · SEC Network

South Florida at Miami · The CW Network

Liberty at Bowling Green · ESPN+

Middle Tennessee at Nevada

Florida Atlantic at Florida International · ESPN+

Arkansas at Ole Miss · ESPN

Western Michigan at Illinois · FS1

Old Dominion at Virginia Tech · ACC Network

Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

App State at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Eastern Michigan at Kentucky · ESPNU

Florida at LSU · ABC

Massachusetts at Iowa · BTN

New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+

East Carolina at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+

Vanderbilt at South Carolina · SEC Network

Duke at Tulane · ESPN2

Utah at Wyoming · CBSSN

Navy at Tulsa · ESPN+

Akron at UAB · ESPN+

Air Force at Utah State · FS1

Minnesota at California · ESPN

Boston College at Stanford · ACC Network

Texas State at Arizona State · TNT

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.