#6Oregon Ducks

6–1 · 3–1 BIG TEN

In the books

WEEK 9 · 2025

The Week 9 recap

Oregon beat Wisconsin. Playoff odds moved from 87% to 83%.

…

…

FS1

playoff chanceEntering87%Win88%Loss67%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2%Oregon 98%

Oregon

Final · Wisconsin 7–21 OregonWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

…

…

FOX

Impact 1

Rooted for

UCLA

at

Indiana

Final · UCLA 6–56 IndianaWent the other way ✗

Projected 26.0-point title-game boost

Indiana won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection54% if UCLA won28% with the other result26-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance

…

…

ABC

Impact 2

Alabama

at

Rooted for

South Carolina

Final · Alabama 29–22 South CarolinaWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.4-point first-round-bye boost

Alabama won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection45% if South Carolina won42% with the other result3.4-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

…

…

ABC

Impact 3

Texas A&M

at

Rooted for

LSU

Final · Texas A&M 49–25 LSUWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.2-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection44% if LSU won41% with the other result3.2-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

…

…

ABC

Impact 4

Ole Miss

at

Rooted for

Oklahoma

Final · Ole Miss 34–26 OklahomaWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.7-point first-round-bye boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection44% if Oklahoma won41% with the other result2.7-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

…

…

BTN

Impact 5

Illinois

at

Rooted for

Washington

Final · Illinois 25–42 WashingtonWish granted ✓

Projected 2.4-point first-round-bye boost

Washington won, helping protect Oregon's path to a top-four seed and first-round bye.

Entering-week projection43% if Washington won41% with the other result2.4-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

…

…

ESPN

Impact 6

Rooted for

Syracuse

at

Georgia Tech

Final · Syracuse 16–41 Georgia TechWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Georgia Tech won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection88% if Syracuse won87% with the other result1.3-point differenceOregon playoff chance

46 other games had little impact

Minnesota at Iowa · CBS

Kennesaw State at Florida International · ESPNU

Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN

Middle Tennessee at Delaware · ESPN2

Missouri State at New Mexico State · CBSSN

South Alabama at Georgia State · ESPN2

North Texas at Charlotte · ESPN2

California at Virginia Tech · ESPN

Boise State at Nevada · CBSSN

Northwestern at Nebraska · FS1

Rutgers at Purdue · BTN

SMU at Wake Forest · The CW Network

Virginia at North Carolina · ACC Network

Kansas State at Kansas · TNT

App State at Old Dominion · ESPNU

South Florida at Memphis · ESPN2

Bowling Green at Kent State · ESPN+

Ohio at Eastern Michigan · CBSSN

Auburn at Arkansas · SEC Network

Akron at Buffalo · ESPN+

UConn at Rice · ESPN+

Utah State at New Mexico

Missouri at Vanderbilt · ESPN

Toledo at Washington State · The CW Network

NC State at Pittsburgh · ACC Network

BYU at Iowa State · FOX

San Diego State at Fresno State · FS1

UL Monroe at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Florida Atlantic at Navy · CBSSN

Temple at Tulsa · ESPN+

Ball State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+

Massachusetts at Central Michigan · ESPN+

Western Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+

Baylor at Cincinnati · ESPN2

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech · ESPNU

Texas at Mississippi State · SEC Network

TCU at West Virginia · ESPN+

Stanford at Miami · ESPN

Georgia Southern at Arkansas State · ESPN+

Louisiana at Troy · ESPN+

Michigan at Michigan State · NBC

Boston College at Louisville · ACC Network

Colorado State at Wyoming · CBSSN

Tennessee at Kentucky · SEC Network

Houston at Arizona State · ESPN2

Colorado at Utah · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.