🏈 Fan Watch

#8Oregon Ducks

5–1 · 2–1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 8 · 2025
The Week 8 recap

Oregon beat Rutgers. Playoff odds moved from 78% to 87%.

Your game

Oregon at Rutgers
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BTN
playoff chanceEntering78%Win81%Loss57%
Oregon
Oregon 88%Rutgers 12%
Rutgers
Final · Oregon 56–10 RutgersWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Oregon wanted
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CBS
Impact 1
Ohio State
at
Rooted for
Wisconsin
Final · Ohio State 34–0 WisconsinWent the other way ✗
Projected 22.6-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection44% if Wisconsin won21% with the other result23-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance
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Peacock
Impact 2
Rooted for
Michigan State
at
Indiana
Final · Michigan State 13–38 IndianaWent the other way ✗
Projected 17.0-point title-game boost

Indiana won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection39% if Michigan State won22% with the other result17-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance
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Peacock
Impact 3
Penn State
at
Rooted for
Iowa
Final · Penn State 24–25 IowaWish granted ✓
Projected 2.8-point playoff boost

Penn State lost again, helping keep them behind Oregon.

Entering-week projection80% if Iowa won77% with the other result2.8-point differenceOregon playoff chance
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NBC
Impact 4
Rooted for
USC
at
Notre Dame
Final · USC 24–34 Notre DameWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection80% if USC won78% with the other result2-point differenceOregon playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 5
Rooted for
Louisville
at
Miami
Final · Louisville 24–21 MiamiWish granted ✓
Projected 2.8-point first-round-bye boost

Louisville won, helping protect Oregon's path to a top-four seed and first-round bye.

Entering-week projection32% if Louisville won29% with the other result2.8-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance
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ESPN
Impact 6
Texas A&M
at
Rooted for
Arkansas
Final · Texas A&M 45–42 ArkansasWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection79% if Arkansas won77% with the other result1.4-point differenceOregon playoff chance
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FOX
Impact 7
Nebraska
at
Rooted for
Minnesota
Final · Nebraska 6–24 MinnesotaWish granted ✓
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Minnesota won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 12 game against Oregon.

Entering-week projection79% if Minnesota won77% with the other result1.4-point differenceOregon playoff chance
51 other games had little impact
Oklahoma at South Carolina · SEC Network
Texas Tech at Arizona State · FOX
Washington at Michigan · FOX
Tennessee at Alabama · ABC
Arkansas State at South Alabama · ESPN2
New Mexico State at Liberty · CBSSN
Florida International at Western Kentucky · ESPNU
Delaware at Jacksonville State · ESPN2
UTEP at Sam Houston · CBSSN
Tulsa at East Carolina · ESPN
San José State at Utah State · CBSSN
North Carolina at California · ESPN
LSU at Vanderbilt · ABC
Georgia Tech at Duke · ESPN
UConn at Boston College · ACC Network
Arizona at Houston · FS1
Baylor at TCU · ESPN2
Army at Tulane · ESPNU
Central Michigan at Bowling Green · CBSSN
Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
West Virginia at UCF · TNT
Kent State at Toledo · ESPN+
Buffalo at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Purdue at Northwestern · BTN
Troy at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Ole Miss at Georgia · ABC
SMU at Clemson · ACC Network
Wyoming at Air Force · CBSSN
UNLV at Boise State · FS1
Coastal Carolina at App State · ESPN+
Old Dominion at James Madison · ESPNU
Texas State at Marshall · ESPN+
Temple at Charlotte · ESPN+
UTSA at North Texas · ESPN+
Akron at Ball State · ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Ohio · ESPN+
Memphis at UAB · ESPN2
Mississippi State at Florida · SEC Network
Southern Miss at Louisiana · ESPN+
Washington State at Virginia · The CW Network
Texas at Kentucky · ESPN
Maryland at UCLA · FS1
Hawai'i at Colorado State
Georgia State at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Pittsburgh at Syracuse · ACC Network
Florida Atlantic at South Florida · ESPNU
Missouri at Auburn · SEC Network
Utah at BYU · FOX
Cincinnati at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Nevada at New Mexico · FS1
Florida State at Stanford · ESPN
The rooting list was:Oregon, then Wisconsin, Michigan State, Iowa, USC, Louisville, Arkansas, Minnesota.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 8, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 8). How the model works.