#6Oregon Ducks

10–1 · 7–1 BIG TEN

In the books

WEEK 14 · 2025

The Week 14 recap

Oregon beat Washington. Playoff odds moved from 77% to 97%.

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CBS

playoff chanceEntering77%Win89%Loss38%

Oregon

Oregon 75%Washington 25%

Washington

Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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FOX

Impact 1

Ohio State

at

Rooted for

Michigan

Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWent the other way ✗

Projected 75.4-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection75% if Michigan won0% with the other result75-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance

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NBC

Impact 2

Indiana

at

Rooted for

Purdue

Final · Indiana 56–3 PurdueWent the other way ✗

Projected 7.4-point first-round-bye boost

Indiana won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection20% if Purdue won13% with the other result7.4-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

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ABC

Impact 3

Ole Miss

at

Rooted for

Mississippi State

Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.0-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection80% if Mississippi State won76% with the other result4-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 4

Alabama

at

Rooted for

Auburn

Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.0-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection80% if Auburn won76% with the other result4-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 5

Rooted for

LSU

at

Oklahoma

Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.2-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection79% if LSU won76% with the other result3.2-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 6

Vanderbilt

at

Rooted for

Tennessee

Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.1-point playoff boost

Vanderbilt won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection78% if Tennessee won75% with the other result3.1-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 7

Texas Tech

at

Rooted for

West Virginia

Final · Texas Tech 49–0 West VirginiaWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.8-point first-round-bye boost

Texas Tech won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if West Virginia won13% with the other result4.8-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

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ESPN

Impact 8

Rooted for

Virginia Tech

at

Virginia

Final · Virginia Tech 7–27 VirginiaWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.5-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection79% if Virginia Tech won76% with the other result2.5-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 9

Utah

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Rooted for

Kansas

Final · Utah 31–21 KansasWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.2-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection78% if Kansas won76% with the other result2.2-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 10

Miami

at

Rooted for

Pittsburgh

Final · Miami 38–7 PittsburghWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.2-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection78% if Pittsburgh won76% with the other result2.2-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 11

Georgia

at

Rooted for

Georgia Tech

Final · Georgia 16–9 Georgia TechWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.9-point first-round-bye boost

Georgia won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if Georgia Tech won13% with the other result3.9-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

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The CW Network

Impact 12

Rooted for

Oregon State

at

Washington State

Final · Oregon State 8–32 Washington StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Washington State won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection78% if Oregon State won76% with the other result1.7-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 13

Texas A&M

at

Rooted for

Texas

Final · Texas A&M 17–27 TexasWish granted ✓

Projected 2.9-point first-round-bye boost

Texas won, helping protect Oregon's path to a top-four seed and first-round bye.

Entering-week projection14% if Texas won11% with the other result2.9-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

53 other games had little impact

Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU

Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2

Navy at Memphis · ESPN

Iowa at Nebraska · CBS

Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU

Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN

Air Force at Colorado State · FS1

San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN

Temple at North Texas · ESPN

Boise State at Utah State · CBS

Arizona at Arizona State · FOX

Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network

Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network

Houston at Baylor · TNT

Colorado at Kansas State · FS1

Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU

East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+

Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+

Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN

UCF at BYU · ESPN2

UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+

Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+

Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+

Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+

Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+

Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+

Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+

Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network

Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+

UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+

South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+

UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+

Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network

Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1

Penn State at Rutgers · BTN

Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network

Cincinnati at TCU · FOX

Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN

Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Army at UTSA · ESPN+

James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU

Florida State at Florida · ESPN2

Maryland at Michigan State · FS1

Rice at South Florida · ESPN+

UCLA at USC · NBC

Northwestern at Illinois · FOX

North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network

Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU

SMU at California · ESPN2

UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN

Notre Dame at Stanford · ESPN

Fresno State at San José State · FS1

Wyoming at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.