🏈 Fan Watch

#6Oregon Ducks

7–1 · 4–1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
The Week 10 recap

Oregon was off. Playoff odds moved from 83% to 68%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Oregon wanted
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FOX
Impact 1
Rooted for
Penn State
at
Ohio State
Final · Penn State 14–38 Ohio StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 29.3-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection43% if Penn State won13% with the other result29-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance
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CBS
Impact 2
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Maryland
Final · Indiana 55–10 MarylandWent the other way ✗
Projected 20.4-point title-game boost

Indiana won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection40% if Maryland won19% with the other result20-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance
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ESPN
Impact 3
Rooted for
South Carolina
at
Ole Miss
Final · South Carolina 14–30 Ole MissWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection85% if South Carolina won83% with the other result2.1-point differenceOregon playoff chance
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ABC
Impact 4
Georgia
at
Rooted for
Florida
Final · Georgia 24–20 FloridaWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.5-point first-round-bye boost

Georgia won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if Florida won32% with the other result3.5-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance
48 other games had little impact
Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC
Georgia Tech at NC State · ESPN2
Miami at SMU · ESPN
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
James Madison at Texas State · ESPN2
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2
Tulane at UTSA · ESPN
Memphis at Rice · ESPN2
North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
Duke at Clemson · ACC Network
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
UAB at UConn · CBSSN
Army at Air Force · CBS
Navy at North Texas · ESPN2
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+
Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
New Mexico at UNLV
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Pittsburgh at Stanford · ACC Network
Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Fresno State at Boise State · FS1
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Virginia at California · ESPN2
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Wake Forest at Florida State · ACC Network
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN
The rooting list was:Oregon is off, then Penn State, Maryland, South Carolina, Florida.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.