๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#6Oregon Ducks

4โ€“0 ยท 1โ€“0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

Oregon beat Penn State. Playoff odds moved from 84% to 91%.

Your game

Oregon at Penn State
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Big Ten title-game chanceEntering33%Win65%Loss24%
Oregon
Oregon 22%Penn State 78%
Penn State
Final ยท Oregon 30โ€“24 Penn StateWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Oregon wanted
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Impact 1
Ohio State
at
Rooted for
Washington
Final ยท Ohio State 24โ€“6 WashingtonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.8-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection37% if Washington won31% with the other result5.8-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 2
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Iowa
Final ยท Indiana 20โ€“15 IowaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.5-point title-game boost

Indiana won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection34% if Iowa won32% with the other result2.5-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 3
USC
at
Rooted for
Illinois
Final ยท USC 32โ€“34 IllinoisWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.2-point title-game boost

USC lost, improving Oregon's place in the Big Ten standings.

Entering-week projection34% if Illinois won32% with the other result2.2-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
Cincinnati
at
Kansas
Final ยท Cincinnati 37โ€“34 KansasWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Cincinnati won, thinning out the at-large competition for Oregon's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection85% if Cincinnati won83% with the other result1.4-point differenceOregon playoff chance
46 other games had little impact
Alabama at Georgia ยท ABC
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas ยท ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Oregon, then Washington, Iowa, Illinois, Cincinnati.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.