#6Oregon Ducks
3–0 · 1–0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 4 · 2025
36%
Big Ten title game
14%
Win the Big Ten
>99%
Make the playoff
57%
First-round bye
avg seed 4.6
How the week went: playoff odds >99% → >99% · title-game odds 36% → 33%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Oregon's pathYour game
…
… · BTN
Oregon State at #6 Oregon
Your game. Beat Oregon State and your playoff odds are >99%; lose and they drop to 96%.
Final · Oregon State 7–41 OregonWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ABC
Florida at #4 Miami
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Florida winning protects it.
Final · Florida 7–26 MiamiWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida+11.5 pp first-round-bye odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · CBS
#21 Michigan at Nebraska
Big Ten race: Michigan losing helps your spot in the standings.
Final · Michigan 30–27 NebraskaWent the other way ✗
Root for Nebraska+3.7 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
Sam Houston at #8 Texas
You're close to a playoff lock — the live question is the top-4 seed and first-round bye, and Sam Houston winning protects it.
Final · Sam Houston 0–55 TexasWent the other way ✗
Root for Sam Houston+4.0 pp first-round-bye odds
46 more games that don't move your needle
Bowling Green at Louisville · ACC Network
Wyoming at Colorado · ESPN
Rice at Charlotte · ESPN
Tulsa at Oklahoma State · ESPN
Iowa at Rutgers · FOX
Arkansas at Memphis · ABC
Maryland at Wisconsin · NBC
Syracuse at Clemson · ESPN
SMU at TCU · ESPN
Texas Tech at Utah · FOX
UNLV at Miami (OH) · ESPNU
North Texas at Army · CBSSN
UAB at Tennessee · SEC Network
Tulane at Ole Miss · ESPN
Auburn at Oklahoma · ABC
Purdue at Notre Dame · NBC
Kent State at Florida State · ACC Network
North Carolina at UCF · FOX
Ball State at UConn · CBSSN
James Madison at Liberty · ESPNU
Louisiana at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
Troy at Buffalo · ESPN+
Toledo at Western Michigan · ESPN+
NC State at Duke · ESPN2
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Temple at Georgia Tech · The CW Network
West Virginia at Kansas · FS1
Delaware at Florida International · ESPN+
Arkansas State at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
South Carolina at Missouri · ESPN
Marshall at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Nevada at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Boise State at Air Force · CBSSN
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama · ESPN+
Georgia State at Vanderbilt · ESPNU
Washington at Washington State · CBS
Illinois at Indiana · NBC
Stanford at Virginia · ACC Network
Arizona State at Baylor · FOX
BYU at East Carolina · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+
UL Monroe at UTEP · ESPN+
UTSA at Colorado State · FS1
California at San Diego State · CBSSN
Michigan State at USC · FOX
Fresno State at Hawai'i
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4).