#9Oregon Ducks
7–1 · 4–1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
9%
Big Ten title game
4%
Win the Big Ten
90%
Make the playoff
<1%
First-round bye
avg seed 7.8
How the week went: playoff odds 90% → 88% · title-game odds 9% → 13%.
The Saturday rundown
ranked by what moves Oregon's pathYour game
…
… · CBS
#9 Oregon at #20 Iowa
Your game. Beat Iowa and your playoff odds are 97%; lose and they drop to 79%.
Final · Oregon 18–16 IowaWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · BTN
#1 Ohio State at Purdue
Big Ten race: Ohio State losing helps your spot in the standings.
Final · Ohio State 34–10 PurdueWent the other way ✗
Root for Purdue+32.9 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ABC
#7 BYU at #8 Texas Tech
BYU winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.
Final · BYU 7–29 Texas TechWent the other way ✗
Root for BYU+2.1 pp playoff odds
…
… · NBC
Navy at #10 Notre Dame
Seeding watch: Navy winning moves you from around the 8th seed toward the 7th — a friendlier bracket.
Final · Navy 10–49 Notre DameWent the other way ✗
Root for Navy≈0.4 seed lines
47 more games that don't move your needle
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
Georgia at Mississippi State · ESPN
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri · ABC
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
LSU at Alabama · ABC
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11).