#9Oregon Ducks

7–1 · 4–1 BIG TEN

In the books

WEEK 11 · 2025

The Week 11 recap

Oregon beat Iowa. Playoff odds moved from 68% to 65%.

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CBS

playoff chanceEntering68%Win81%Loss48%

Oregon

Oregon 59%Iowa 41%

Iowa

Final · Oregon 18–16 IowaWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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BTN

Impact 1

Ohio State

at

Rooted for

Purdue

Final · Ohio State 34–10 PurdueWent the other way ✗

Projected 29.2-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection38% if Purdue won9% with the other result29-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance

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ESPN

Impact 2

Georgia

at

Rooted for

Mississippi State

Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.1-point playoff boost

Georgia won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Mississippi State won67% with the other result3.1-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 3

Rooted for

LSU

at

Alabama

Final · LSU 9–20 AlabamaWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if LSU won67% with the other result2.4-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 4

Texas A&M

at

Rooted for

Missouri

Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.7-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Missouri won12% with the other result3.7-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

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FOX

Impact 5

Indiana

at

Rooted for

Penn State

Final · Indiana 27–24 Penn StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.0-point first-round-bye boost

Indiana won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Penn State won13% with the other result3-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

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BTN

Impact 6

Rooted for

Washington

at

Wisconsin

Final · Washington 10–13 WisconsinWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Wisconsin won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection68% if Washington won67% with the other result1.4-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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FOX

Impact 7

Northwestern

at

Rooted for

USC

Final · Northwestern 17–38 USCWish granted ✓

Projected 2.2-point first-round-bye boost

USC won, helping protect Oregon's path to a top-four seed and first-round bye.

Entering-week projection14% if USC won12% with the other result2.2-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

43 other games had little impact

Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN

Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2

Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU

Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2

Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2

UTSA at South Florida · ESPN

Houston at UCF · FS1

Tulane at Memphis · ESPN

SMU at Boston College · ACC Network

BYU at Texas Tech · ABC

Colorado at West Virginia · TNT

James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2

Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU

Temple at Army · CBSSN

Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+

Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+

UAB at Rice · ESPN+

Maryland at Rutgers · FS1

Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+

Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+

Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+

Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+

Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+

Syracuse at Miami · ESPN

Duke at UConn · CBSSN

Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2

Iowa State at TCU · FOX

Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network

Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+

Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+

Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network

Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+

Air Force at San José State · FS1

California at Louisville · ESPN2

Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network

Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN

Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network

Navy at Notre Dame · NBC

Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN

Nebraska at UCLA · FOX

UNLV at Colorado State · FS1

Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network

San Diego State at Hawai'i

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.