#8Oregon Ducks

8–1 · 5–1 BIG TEN

In the books

WEEK 12 · 2025

The Week 12 recap

Oregon beat Minnesota. Playoff odds moved from 65% to 70%.

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FOX

playoff chanceEntering65%Win66%Loss30%

Minnesota

Minnesota 3%Oregon 97%

Oregon

Final · Minnesota 13–42 OregonWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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NBC

Impact 1

Rooted for

UCLA

at

Ohio State

Final · UCLA 10–48 Ohio StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 44.2-point title-game boost

Ohio State won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection58% if UCLA won14% with the other result44-point differenceOregon Big Ten title-game chance

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BTN

Impact 2

Rooted for

Wisconsin

at

Indiana

Final · Wisconsin 7–31 IndianaWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.0-point playoff boost

Indiana won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Wisconsin won65% with the other result5-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 3

Rooted for

Florida

at

Ole Miss

Final · Florida 24–34 Ole MissWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.6-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if Florida won65% with the other result4.6-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ABC

Impact 4

Notre Dame

at

Rooted for

Pittsburgh

Final · Notre Dame 37–15 PittsburghWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.1-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if Pittsburgh won65% with the other result4.1-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 5

Rooted for

TCU

at

BYU

Final · TCU 13–44 BYUWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.9-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if TCU won64% with the other result2.9-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ESPN2

Impact 6

Utah

at

Rooted for

Baylor

Final · Utah 55–28 BaylorWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

Utah won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if Baylor won65% with the other result2.4-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 7

Rooted for

NC State

at

Miami

Final · NC State 7–41 MiamiWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.3-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if NC State won65% with the other result2.3-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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ESPN

Impact 8

Rooted for

South Carolina

at

Texas A&M

Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if South Carolina won65% with the other result2.1-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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FS1

Impact 9

Purdue

at

Rooted for

Washington

Final · Purdue 13–49 WashingtonWish granted ✓

Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Washington won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 14 game against Oregon.

Entering-week projection65% if Washington won63% with the other result2.1-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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BTN

Impact 10

Iowa

at

Rooted for

USC

Final · Iowa 21–26 USCWish granted ✓

Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Iowa lost again, helping keep them behind Oregon.

Entering-week projection66% if USC won64% with the other result1.7-point differenceOregon playoff chance

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FOX

Impact 11

Rooted for

UCF

at

Texas Tech

Final · UCF 9–48 Texas TechWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.3-point first-round-bye boost

Texas Tech won instead, so Oregon did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection14% if UCF won12% with the other result2.3-point differenceOregon first-round bye chance

46 other games had little impact

Kent State at Akron · ESPNU

Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2

Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN

Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU

Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2

Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN

Clemson at Louisville · ESPN

Michigan at Northwestern · FOX

Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1

Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU

Air Force at UConn · CBSSN

UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+

South Florida at Navy · ESPN2

Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+

Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network

Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network

West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV

Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+

North Texas at UAB · ESPN+

UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+

Colorado State at New Mexico

Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC

Penn State at Michigan State · CBS

Maryland at Illinois · FS1

Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network

Virginia at Duke · ESPN2

Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

San José State at Nevada · CBSSN

App State at James Madison · ESPN+

South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU

Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+

New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network

North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network

Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+

Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+

Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN

Texas at Georgia · ABC

Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network

Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU

Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network

Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN

Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.