The CFP race
the most likely field, the bubble, and the games that move it
In the books
WEEK 16 · 2025
The field is essentially settled — no team sits on the bubble.
The bracket as of today
12 most likely teams, seeded by the sims · 1–4 get byes
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1
Indiana13–0100%
Indiana13–0100%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 8/9
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4
Texas Tech12–1100%
Texas Tech12–1100%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 5/12
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3
Ohio State12–1100%
Ohio State12–1100%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 6/11
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2
Georgia12–1100%
Georgia12–1100%Quarterfinal · vs winner of 7/10
Bubble watch
15–85% playoff odds, with the last week's movementNo team sits on the bubble — the field is essentially settled.
Games of the week
ranked by playoff probability in play across the country…
… · CBS
Army at Navy
Final · Army 16–17 Navy
Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 16, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 16).