๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#1Ohio State Buckeyes

2โ€“0 ยท 0โ€“0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 3 ยท 2025
The Week 3 recap

Ohio State beat Ohio. Playoff odds moved from 97% to 97%.

Your game

Ohio at Ohio State
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first-round bye chanceEntering70%Win71%Loss53%
Ohio
Ohio 8%Ohio State 92%
Ohio State
Final ยท Ohio 9โ€“37 Ohio StateWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Ohio State wanted
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Impact 1
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Northwestern
Final ยท Oregon 34โ€“14 NorthwesternWent the other way โœ—
Projected 6.6-point title-game boost

Oregon won instead, so Ohio State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection50% if Northwestern won43% with the other result6.6-point differenceOhio State Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 2
USC
at
Rooted for
Purdue
Final ยท USC 33โ€“17 PurdueWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.2-point title-game boost

USC won instead, so Ohio State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection49% if Purdue won43% with the other result5.2-point differenceOhio State Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Texas A&M
at
Notre Dame
Final ยท Texas A&M 41โ€“40 Notre DameWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.5-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won, helping protect Ohio State's path to a top-four seed and first-round bye.

Entering-week projection72% if Texas A&M won70% with the other result2.5-point differenceOhio State first-round bye chance
43 other games had little impact
Georgia at Tennessee ยท ABC
Wisconsin at Alabama ยท ABC
South Florida at Miami ยท The CW Network
NC State at Wake Forest ยท ESPN
Colorado at Houston ยท ESPN
Kansas State at Arizona ยท FOX
New Mexico at UCLA ยท BTN
Oklahoma at Temple ยท ESPN2
Central Michigan at Michigan ยท BTN
Clemson at Georgia Tech ยท ESPN
Memphis at Troy ยท ESPNU
Buffalo at Kent State ยท CBSSN
South Alabama at Auburn ยท SEC Network
Louisiana at Missouri ยท ESPN+
UConn at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Oregon State at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Washington State at North Texas ยท ESPNU
SMU at Missouri State ยท CBSSN
Pittsburgh at West Virginia ยท ESPN
Iowa State at Arkansas State ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Texas ยท SEC Network
Liberty at Bowling Green ยท ESPN+
Middle Tennessee at Nevada
Florida Atlantic at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Western Michigan at Illinois ยท FS1
Old Dominion at Virginia Tech ยท ACC Network
Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
App State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Kentucky ยท ESPNU
Florida at LSU ยท ABC
Massachusetts at Iowa ยท BTN
New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech ยท ESPN+
East Carolina at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN+
Vanderbilt at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Duke at Tulane ยท ESPN2
Utah at Wyoming ยท CBSSN
Navy at Tulsa ยท ESPN+
Akron at UAB ยท ESPN+
Air Force at Utah State ยท FS1
Minnesota at California ยท ESPN
Boston College at Stanford ยท ACC Network
Texas State at Arizona State ยท TNT
The rooting list was:Ohio State, then Northwestern, Purdue, Texas A&M.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.