#1Ohio State Buckeyes

9–0 · 6–0 BIG TEN

In the books

WEEK 12 · 2025

The Week 12 recap

Ohio State beat UCLA. Playoff odds moved from >99% to >99%.

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NBC

Big Ten title-game chanceEntering79%Win79%Loss23%

UCLA

UCLA <1%Ohio State >99%

Ohio State

Final · UCLA 10–48 Ohio StateWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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BTN

Impact 1

Rooted for

Wisconsin

at

Indiana

Final · Wisconsin 7–31 IndianaWent the other way ✗

Projected 16.4-point title-game boost

Indiana won instead, so Ohio State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection95% if Wisconsin won79% with the other result16-point differenceOhio State Big Ten title-game chance

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FOX

Impact 2

Michigan

at

Rooted for

Northwestern

Final · Michigan 24–22 NorthwesternWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.5-point title-game boost

Michigan won instead, so Ohio State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection84% if Northwestern won78% with the other result5.5-point differenceOhio State Big Ten title-game chance

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FOX

Impact 3

Rooted for

Minnesota

at

Oregon

Final · Minnesota 13–42 OregonWent the other way ✗

Projected 5.1-point title-game boost

Oregon won instead, so Ohio State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection84% if Minnesota won79% with the other result5.1-point differenceOhio State Big Ten title-game chance

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ESPN

Impact 4

Rooted for

South Carolina

at

Texas A&M

Final · South Carolina 30–31 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.6-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Ohio State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection92% if South Carolina won89% with the other result2.6-point differenceOhio State first-round bye chance

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CBS

Impact 5

Rooted for

Penn State

at

Michigan State

Final · Penn State 28–10 Michigan StateWish granted ✓

Projected 2.1-point title-game boost

Michigan State lost, improving Ohio State's place in the Big Ten standings.

Entering-week projection79% if Penn State won77% with the other result2.1-point differenceOhio State Big Ten title-game chance

52 other games had little impact

UCF at Texas Tech · FOX

Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC

Kent State at Akron · ESPNU

Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2

Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN

Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU

Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2

Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN

Clemson at Louisville · ESPN

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC

Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1

Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU

Air Force at UConn · CBSSN

UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+

South Florida at Navy · ESPN2

Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+

Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network

Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network

West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV

Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+

North Texas at UAB · ESPN+

UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+

Colorado State at New Mexico

Maryland at Illinois · FS1

Iowa at USC · BTN

Georgia Tech at Boston College · ACC Network

Virginia at Duke · ESPN2

NC State at Miami · ESPN

Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

San José State at Nevada · CBSSN

App State at James Madison · ESPN+

South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU

Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+

New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network

North Carolina at Wake Forest · The CW Network

Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+

Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

Florida at Ole Miss · ESPN

Purdue at Washington · FS1

Utah at Baylor · ESPN2

Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+

Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN

Texas at Georgia · ABC

Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network

Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU

Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network

TCU at BYU · ESPN

Boise State at San Diego State · CBSSN

Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.