🏈 Fan Watch

#1Ohio State Buckeyes

8–0 · 5–0 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
The Week 11 recap

Ohio State beat Purdue. Playoff odds moved from >99% to >99%.

Your game

Ohio State at Purdue
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BTN
Big Ten title-game chanceEntering86%Win87%Loss43%
Ohio State
Ohio State 98%Purdue 2%
Purdue
Final · Ohio State 34–10 PurdueWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Ohio State wanted
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FOX
Impact 1
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Penn State
Final · Indiana 27–24 Penn StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 14.9-point title-game boost

Indiana won instead, so Ohio State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection96% if Penn State won82% with the other result15-point differenceOhio State Big Ten title-game chance
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ABC
Impact 2
Texas A&M
at
Rooted for
Missouri
Final · Texas A&M 38–17 MissouriWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.4-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Ohio State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection86% if Missouri won83% with the other result3.4-point differenceOhio State first-round bye chance
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CBS
Impact 3
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Iowa
Final · Oregon 18–16 IowaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.6-point title-game boost

Oregon won instead, so Ohio State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection88% if Iowa won85% with the other result2.6-point differenceOhio State Big Ten title-game chance
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ESPN
Impact 4
Georgia
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Georgia 41–21 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.5-point first-round-bye boost

Georgia won instead, so Ohio State did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection87% if Mississippi State won85% with the other result2.5-point differenceOhio State first-round bye chance
46 other games had little impact
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
LSU at Alabama · ABC
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Temple at Army · CBSSN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
California at Louisville · ESPN2
Florida State at Clemson · ACC Network
Wake Forest at Virginia · ESPN
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Ohio State, then Penn State, Missouri, Iowa, Mississippi State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.