#7Texas Longhorns

1–1 · 0–0 SEC

In the books

WEEK 3 · 2025

The Week 3 recap

Texas beat UTEP. Playoff odds moved from 68% to 58%.

…

…

SEC Network

playoff chanceEntering68%Win69%Loss53%

UTEP

UTEP 1%Texas 99%

Texas

Final · UTEP 10–27 TexasWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

…

…

ESPN

Impact 1

Rooted for

Arkansas

at

Ole Miss

Final · Arkansas 35–41 Ole MissWent the other way ✗

Projected 7.0-point title-game boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection31% if Arkansas won24% with the other result7-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance

…

…

ABC

Impact 2

Rooted for

Florida

at

LSU

Final · Florida 10–20 LSUWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

LSU won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection70% if Florida won68% with the other result2.1-point differenceTexas playoff chance

…

…

NBC

Impact 3

Rooted for

Texas A&M

at

Notre Dame

Final · Texas A&M 41–40 Notre DameWish granted ✓

Projected 3.7-point first-round-bye boost

Texas A&M won, helping protect Texas's path to a top-four seed and first-round bye.

Entering-week projection21% if Texas A&M won17% with the other result3.7-point differenceTexas first-round bye chance

…

…

ABC

Impact 4

Rooted for

Georgia

at

Tennessee

Final · Georgia 44–41 TennesseeWish granted ✓

Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Georgia won and stayed ranked ahead of its Week 12 game against Texas.

Entering-week projection69% if Georgia won67% with the other result1.7-point differenceTexas playoff chance

…

…

SEC Network

Impact 5

Rooted for

Vanderbilt

at

South Carolina

Final · Vanderbilt 31–7 South CarolinaWish granted ✓

Projected 2.2-point title-game boost

South Carolina lost, improving Texas's place in the SEC standings.

Entering-week projection26% if Vanderbilt won24% with the other result2.2-point differenceTexas SEC title-game chance

…

…

ESPN

Impact 6

NC State

at

Rooted for

Wake Forest

Final · NC State 34–24 Wake ForestWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

NC State won instead, so Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection69% if Wake Forest won68% with the other result1.3-point differenceTexas playoff chance

…

…

ESPN

Impact 7

Clemson

at

Rooted for

Georgia Tech

Final · Clemson 21–24 Georgia TechWish granted ✓

Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Georgia Tech won, thinning out the at-large competition for Texas's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection69% if Georgia Tech won68% with the other result1.2-point differenceTexas playoff chance

39 other games had little impact

Wisconsin at Alabama · ABC

South Florida at Miami · The CW Network

Colorado at Houston · ESPN

Kansas State at Arizona · FOX

New Mexico at UCLA · BTN

Oklahoma at Temple · ESPN2

Oregon at Northwestern · FOX

Central Michigan at Michigan · BTN

Memphis at Troy · ESPNU

Buffalo at Kent State · CBSSN

South Alabama at Auburn · SEC Network

Louisiana at Missouri · ESPN+

UConn at Delaware · ESPN+

USC at Purdue · CBS

Oregon State at Texas Tech · FOX

Washington State at North Texas · ESPNU

SMU at Missouri State · CBSSN

Pittsburgh at West Virginia · ESPN

Iowa State at Arkansas State · ESPN2

Liberty at Bowling Green · ESPN+

Middle Tennessee at Nevada

Florida Atlantic at Florida International · ESPN+

Ohio at Ohio State · Peacock

Western Michigan at Illinois · FS1

Old Dominion at Virginia Tech · ACC Network

Jacksonville State at Georgia Southern · ESPN+

App State at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Eastern Michigan at Kentucky · ESPNU

Massachusetts at Iowa · BTN

New Mexico State at Louisiana Tech · ESPN+

East Carolina at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+

Duke at Tulane · ESPN2

Utah at Wyoming · CBSSN

Navy at Tulsa · ESPN+

Akron at UAB · ESPN+

Air Force at Utah State · FS1

Minnesota at California · ESPN

Boston College at Stanford · ACC Network

Texas State at Arizona State · TNT

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 3, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 3). How the model works.