🏈 Fan Watch

#22Notre Dame Fighting Irish

1–2 · 0–0 FBS INDEPENDENTS
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
The Week 5 recap

Notre Dame beat Arkansas. Playoff odds moved from 61% to 60%.

The FBS Independents title is out of reach, so the playoff path runs through an at-large bid.

Your game

Notre Dame at Arkansas
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ABC
playoff chanceEntering61%Win65%Loss26%
Notre Dame
Notre Dame 88%Arkansas 12%
Arkansas
Final · Notre Dame 56–13 ArkansasWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Notre Dame wanted
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ESPNU
Impact 1
Massachusetts
at
Rooted for
Missouri
Final · Massachusetts 6–42 MissouriWish granted ✓
Projected 6.7-point playoff boost

Missouri won, thinning out the at-large competition for Notre Dame's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection61% if Missouri won54% with the other result6.7-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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Peacock
Impact 2
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Iowa
Final · Indiana 20–15 IowaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Indiana won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection62% if Iowa won60% with the other result1.8-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 3
Rooted for
Auburn
at
Texas A&M
Final · Auburn 10–16 Texas A&MWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Texas A&M won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection62% if Auburn won60% with the other result1.5-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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The CW Network
Impact 4
Virginia Tech
at
Rooted for
NC State
Final · Virginia Tech 23–21 NC StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Virginia Tech won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection61% if NC State won60% with the other result1.5-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 5
Louisville
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final · Louisville 34–27 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Louisville won instead, so Notre Dame did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection62% if Pittsburgh won60% with the other result1.4-point differenceNotre Dame playoff chance
45 other games had little impact
Ohio State at Washington · CBS
Army at East Carolina · ESPN
Florida State at Virginia · ESPN
TCU at Arizona State · FOX
Houston at Oregon State · ESPN
Rutgers at Minnesota · BTN
USC at Illinois · FOX
Duke at Syracuse · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest · ESPN
Cincinnati at Kansas · TNT
UCF at Kansas State · FS1
South Alabama at North Texas · ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio · CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison · ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe · ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss · ABC
UCLA at Northwestern · BTN
California at Boston College · ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia · FOX
UConn at Buffalo · ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Rice at Navy · CBSSN
Akron at Toledo · ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force · FS1
Tulane at Tulsa · ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arizona at Iowa State · ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State · ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic · ESPN2
Alabama at Georgia · ABC
Oregon at Penn State · NBC
Washington State at Colorado State · CBSSN
San José State at Stanford · ACC Network
App State at Boise State · FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP · ESPN+
BYU at Colorado · ESPN
The rooting list was:Notre Dame, then Missouri, Iowa, Auburn, NC State, Pittsburgh.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.