๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#21SMU Mustangs

8โ€“3 ยท 6โ€“1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 14 ยท 2025
The Week 14 recap

SMU lost to California. Playoff odds moved from 57% to <1%.

Your game

SMU at California
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playoff chanceEntering57%Win62%Loss2%
SMU
SMU 91%California 9%
California
Final ยท SMU 35โ€“38 CaliforniaWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result SMU wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Miami
at
Pittsburgh
Final ยท Miami 38โ€“7 PittsburghWish granted โœ“
Projected 36.9-point title-game boost

Pittsburgh lost, improving SMU's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection92% if Miami won55% with the other result37-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
North Carolina
at
NC State
Final ยท North Carolina 19โ€“42 NC StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 13.8-point playoff boost

NC State won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection67% if North Carolina won53% with the other result14-point differenceSMU playoff chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Wake Forest
at
Duke
Final ยท Wake Forest 32โ€“49 DukeWent the other way โœ—
Projected 19.0-point title-game boost

Duke won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection92% if Wake Forest won73% with the other result19-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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Impact 4
Rooted for
Virginia Tech
at
Virginia
Final ยท Virginia Tech 7โ€“27 VirginiaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 14.3-point title-game boost

Virginia won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection92% if Virginia Tech won77% with the other result14-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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Impact 5
UNLV
at
Rooted for
Nevada
Final ยท UNLV 42โ€“17 NevadaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

UNLV won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection58% if Nevada won56% with the other result1.7-point differenceSMU playoff chance
61 other games had little impact
Bowling Green at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN2
Navy at Memphis ยท ESPN
Ole Miss at Mississippi State ยท ABC
Iowa at Nebraska ยท CBS
Utah at Kansas ยท ESPN
Ohio at Buffalo ยท ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois ยท CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State ยท FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech ยท ABC
San Diego State at New Mexico ยท CBSSN
Temple at North Texas ยท ESPN
Boise State at Utah State ยท CBS
Texas A&M at Texas ยท ABC
Indiana at Purdue ยท NBC
Arizona at Arizona State ยท FOX
Kentucky at Louisville ยท ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Ohio State at Michigan ยท FOX
Houston at Baylor ยท TNT
Colorado at Kansas State ยท FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia ยท ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) ยท CBSSN
UCF at BYU ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State ยท ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse ยท The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State ยท ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State ยท ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa ยท ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas ยท SEC Network
LSU at Oklahoma ยท ABC
Vanderbilt at Tennessee ยท ESPN
Oregon at Washington ยท CBS
Wisconsin at Minnesota ยท FS1
Penn State at Rutgers ยท BTN
Cincinnati at TCU ยท FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty ยท CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Army at UTSA ยท ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPNU
Florida State at Florida ยท ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State ยท The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State ยท FS1
Rice at South Florida ยท ESPN+
Alabama at Auburn ยท ABC
UCLA at USC ยท NBC
Northwestern at Illinois ยท FOX
Charlotte at Tulane ยท ESPNU
Notre Dame at Stanford ยท ESPN
Fresno State at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:SMU, then Miami, North Carolina, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Nevada.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.