SMU Mustangs

5–2 · 3–0 ACC

In the books

WEEK 9 · 2025

The Week 9 recap

SMU lost to Wake Forest. Playoff odds moved from 22% to 9%.

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The CW Network

ACC title-game chanceEntering45%Win54%Loss19%

SMU

SMU 74%Wake Forest 26%

Wake Forest

Final · SMU 12–13 Wake ForestWent the other way ✗

By impactBy kickoff

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ESPN

Impact 1

Rooted for

Syracuse

at

Georgia Tech

Final · Syracuse 16–41 Georgia TechWent the other way ✗

Projected 8.4-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection52% if Syracuse won43% with the other result8.4-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance

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ACC Network

Impact 2

Rooted for

Boston College

at

Louisville

Final · Boston College 24–38 LouisvilleWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.9-point title-game boost

Louisville won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection49% if Boston College won44% with the other result4.9-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance

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ACC Network

Impact 3

Virginia

at

Rooted for

North Carolina

Final · Virginia 17–16 North CarolinaWent the other way ✗

Projected 4.6-point title-game boost

Virginia won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection48% if North Carolina won43% with the other result4.6-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance

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ESPN

Impact 4

Rooted for

Stanford

at

Miami

Final · Stanford 7–42 MiamiWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.5-point title-game boost

Miami won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection48% if Stanford won44% with the other result3.5-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance

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ESPN

Impact 5

Rooted for

California

at

Virginia Tech

Final · California 34–42 Virginia TechWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.6-point title-game boost

Virginia Tech won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection46% if California won44% with the other result2.6-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance

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ESPN+

Impact 6

Rooted for

Ball State

at

Northern Illinois

Final · Ball State 7–21 Northern IllinoisWent the other way ✗

Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Northern Illinois won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection23% if Ball State won22% with the other result1.6-point differenceSMU playoff chance

46 other games had little impact

Kennesaw State at Florida International · ESPNU

Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN

Middle Tennessee at Delaware · ESPN2

Missouri State at New Mexico State · CBSSN

South Alabama at Georgia State · ESPN2

North Texas at Charlotte · ESPN2

Boise State at Nevada · CBSSN

Ole Miss at Oklahoma · ABC

Northwestern at Nebraska · FS1

Rutgers at Purdue · BTN

UCLA at Indiana · FOX

Kansas State at Kansas · TNT

App State at Old Dominion · ESPNU

South Florida at Memphis · ESPN2

Bowling Green at Kent State · ESPN+

Ohio at Eastern Michigan · CBSSN

Auburn at Arkansas · SEC Network

Akron at Buffalo · ESPN+

UConn at Rice · ESPN+

Utah State at New Mexico

Alabama at South Carolina · ABC

Missouri at Vanderbilt · ESPN

Illinois at Washington · BTN

Minnesota at Iowa · CBS

Toledo at Washington State · The CW Network

NC State at Pittsburgh · ACC Network

BYU at Iowa State · FOX

San Diego State at Fresno State · FS1

UL Monroe at Southern Miss · ESPN+

Florida Atlantic at Navy · CBSSN

Temple at Tulsa · ESPN+

Massachusetts at Central Michigan · ESPN+

Western Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+

Baylor at Cincinnati · ESPN2

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech · ESPNU

Texas at Mississippi State · SEC Network

TCU at West Virginia · ESPN+

Wisconsin at Oregon · FS1

Georgia Southern at Arkansas State · ESPN+

Louisiana at Troy · ESPN+

Texas A&M at LSU · ABC

Michigan at Michigan State · NBC

Colorado State at Wyoming · CBSSN

Tennessee at Kentucky · SEC Network

Houston at Arizona State · ESPN2

Colorado at Utah · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.