๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

SMU Mustangs

6โ€“3 ยท 4โ€“1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 11 ยท 2025
The Week 11 recap

SMU beat Boston College. Playoff odds moved from 11% to 23%.

Your game

SMU at Boston College
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ACC title-game chanceEntering20%Win23%Loss<1%
SMU
SMU 85%Boston College 15%
Boston College
Final ยท SMU 45โ€“13 Boston CollegeWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result SMU wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Wake Forest
at
Virginia
Final ยท Wake Forest 16โ€“9 VirginiaWish granted โœ“
Projected 12.6-point title-game boost

Virginia lost, improving SMU's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection30% if Wake Forest won17% with the other result13-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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Impact 2
Syracuse
at
Rooted for
Miami
Final ยท Syracuse 10โ€“38 MiamiWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.0-point playoff boost

Miami won, making SMU's earlier win over them look better.

Entering-week projection11% if Miami won9% with the other result2-point differenceSMU playoff chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Stanford
at
North Carolina
Final ยท Stanford 15โ€“20 North CarolinaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.1-point title-game boost

North Carolina won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection22% if Stanford won19% with the other result3.1-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
47 other games had little impact
Florida State at Clemson ยท ACC Network
Massachusetts at Akron ยท CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio ยท ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State ยท ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo ยท ESPN2
Georgia Southern at App State ยท ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida ยท ESPN
Houston at UCF ยท FS1
Northwestern at USC ยท FOX
Tulane at Memphis ยท ESPN
Georgia at Mississippi State ยท ESPN
Indiana at Penn State ยท FOX
BYU at Texas Tech ยท ABC
Colorado at West Virginia ยท TNT
James Madison at Marshall ยท ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State ยท ESPNU
Temple at Army ยท CBSSN
Ohio State at Purdue ยท BTN
Missouri State at Liberty ยท ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
UAB at Rice ยท ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers ยท FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP ยท ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina ยท ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri ยท ABC
Oregon at Iowa ยท CBS
Duke at UConn ยท CBSSN
Kansas at Arizona ยท ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU ยท FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State ยท ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPN+
Washington at Wisconsin ยท BTN
Texas State at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Air Force at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
California at Louisville ยท ESPN2
LSU at Alabama ยท ABC
Florida at Kentucky ยท SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Nevada at Utah State ยท CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA ยท FOX
UNLV at Colorado State ยท FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State ยท The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:SMU, then Wake Forest, Miami, Stanford.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.