๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

SMU Mustangs

2โ€“2 ยท 0โ€“0 ACC
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

SMU was off. Playoff odds moved from 11% to 9%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result SMU wanted
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Impact 1
Georgia Tech
at
Rooted for
Wake Forest
Final ยท Georgia Tech 30โ€“29 Wake ForestWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.8-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection28% if Wake Forest won24% with the other result3.8-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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Impact 2
Louisville
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final ยท Louisville 34โ€“27 PittsburghWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.3-point title-game boost

Louisville won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection27% if Pittsburgh won24% with the other result2.3-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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Impact 3
Duke
at
Rooted for
Syracuse
Final ยท Duke 38โ€“3 SyracuseWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.0-point title-game boost

Duke won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection26% if Syracuse won24% with the other result2-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
48 other games had little impact
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
Florida State at Virginia ยท ESPN
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas ยท ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
USC at Illinois ยท FOX
Cincinnati at Kansas ยท TNT
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
Ohio State at Washington ยท CBS
Indiana at Iowa ยท Peacock
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Alabama at Georgia ยท ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State ยท NBC
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:SMU is off, then Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Syracuse.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.