๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

SMU Mustangs

2โ€“1 ยท 0โ€“0 ACC
In the books
WEEK 4 ยท 2025
The Week 4 recap

SMU lost to TCU. Playoff odds moved from 14% to 11%.

Your game

SMU at TCU
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playoff chanceEntering14%Win18%Loss12%
SMU
SMU 37%TCU 63%
TCU
Final ยท SMU 24โ€“35 TCUWent the other way โœ—

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result SMU wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Stanford
at
Virginia
Final ยท Stanford 20โ€“48 VirginiaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.9-point title-game boost

Virginia won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection29% if Stanford won27% with the other result1.9-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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Impact 2
NC State
at
Rooted for
Duke
Final ยท NC State 33โ€“45 DukeWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.9-point title-game boost

NC State lost, improving SMU's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection29% if Duke won27% with the other result1.9-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
47 other games had little impact
Syracuse at Clemson ยท ESPN
California at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Rice at Charlotte ยท ESPN
Tulsa at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN
Iowa at Rutgers ยท FOX
Arkansas at Memphis ยท ABC
Maryland at Wisconsin ยท NBC
Bowling Green at Louisville ยท ACC Network
Texas Tech at Utah ยท FOX
UNLV at Miami (OH) ยท ESPNU
North Texas at Army ยท CBSSN
UAB at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Oregon ยท BTN
Tulane at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Auburn at Oklahoma ยท ABC
Michigan at Nebraska ยท CBS
Purdue at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Kent State at Florida State ยท ACC Network
North Carolina at UCF ยท FOX
Ball State at UConn ยท CBSSN
James Madison at Liberty ยท ESPNU
Louisiana at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
Troy at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
Toledo at Western Michigan ยท ESPN+
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Temple at Georgia Tech ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Kansas ยท FS1
Delaware at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
South Carolina at Missouri ยท ESPN
Marshall at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Nevada at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
Boise State at Air Force ยท CBSSN
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
Florida at Miami ยท ABC
Georgia State at Vanderbilt ยท ESPNU
Washington at Washington State ยท CBS
Illinois at Indiana ยท NBC
Arizona State at Baylor ยท FOX
BYU at East Carolina ยท ESPN2
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech ยท ESPN+
Sam Houston at Texas ยท ESPN+
UL Monroe at UTEP ยท ESPN+
UTSA at Colorado State ยท FS1
Wyoming at Colorado ยท ESPN
Michigan State at USC ยท FOX
Fresno State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:SMU, then Stanford, Duke.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.