🏈 Fan Watch

SMU Mustangs

7–3 · 5–1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 12 · 2025
The Week 12 recap

SMU was off. Playoff odds moved from 23% to 27%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result SMU wanted
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ACC Network
Impact 1
Georgia Tech
at
Rooted for
Boston College
Final · Georgia Tech 36–34 Boston CollegeWent the other way ✗
Projected 21.5-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection59% if Boston College won37% with the other result22-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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ESPN
Impact 2
NC State
at
Rooted for
Miami
Final · NC State 7–41 MiamiWish granted ✓
Projected 6.3-point title-game boost

NC State lost, improving SMU's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection42% if Miami won36% with the other result6.3-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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ESPN+
Impact 3
Rooted for
App State
at
James Madison
Final · App State 10–58 James MadisonWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.1-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection26% if App State won23% with the other result3.1-point differenceSMU playoff chance
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ESPN
Impact 4
Rooted for
Clemson
at
Louisville
Final · Clemson 20–19 LouisvilleWish granted ✓
Projected 3.8-point title-game boost

Louisville lost, improving SMU's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection44% if Clemson won40% with the other result3.8-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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The CW Network
Impact 5
North Carolina
at
Rooted for
Wake Forest
Final · North Carolina 12–28 Wake ForestWish granted ✓
Projected 3.1-point title-game boost

North Carolina lost, improving SMU's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection43% if Wake Forest won40% with the other result3.1-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance
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ESPN2
Impact 6
South Florida
at
Rooted for
Navy
Final · South Florida 38–41 NavyWish granted ✓
Projected 1.9-point playoff boost

Navy won, thinning out the at-large competition for SMU's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection24% if Navy won22% with the other result1.9-point differenceSMU playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 7
Rooted for
Virginia
at
Duke
Final · Virginia 34–17 DukeWish granted ✓
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Virginia won, thinning out the at-large competition for SMU's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection24% if Virginia won22% with the other result1.8-point differenceSMU playoff chance
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CBSSN
Impact 8
Boise State
at
Rooted for
San Diego State
Final · Boise State 7–17 San Diego StateWish granted ✓
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

San Diego State won, thinning out the at-large competition for SMU's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection23% if San Diego State won22% with the other result1.2-point differenceSMU playoff chance
50 other games had little impact
Liberty at Florida International · ESPN+
Kent State at Akron · ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan · ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan · CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) · ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion · ESPN
Minnesota at Oregon · FOX
South Carolina at Texas A&M · ESPN
Wisconsin at Indiana · BTN
Michigan at Northwestern · FOX
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh · ABC
Arizona at Cincinnati · FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Air Force at UConn · CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Ball State · ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU · SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa · The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State · truTV
Marshall at Georgia State · ESPN+
North Texas at UAB · ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State · ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama · ABC
Penn State at Michigan State · CBS
Maryland at Illinois · FS1
Iowa at USC · BTN
UCF at Texas Tech · FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
San José State at Nevada · CBSSN
South Alabama at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina · ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane · ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee · SEC Network
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern · ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Washington · FS1
Utah at Baylor · ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV · CBSSN
Texas at Georgia · ABC
UCLA at Ohio State · NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State · ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State · ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State · The CW Network
TCU at BYU · ESPN
Wyoming at Fresno State · FS1
The rooting list was:SMU is off, then Boston College, Miami, App State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Navy, Virginia, San Diego State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.