SMU Mustangs

5–3 · 3–1 ACC

In the books

WEEK 10 · 2025

The Week 10 recap

SMU beat Miami. Playoff odds moved from 9% to 11%.

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ESPN

ACC title-game chanceEntering14%Win32%Loss<1%

Miami

Miami 57%SMU 43%

SMU

Final · Miami 20–26 SMUWish granted ✓

By impactBy kickoff

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ACC Network

Impact 1

Duke

at

Rooted for

Clemson

Final · Duke 46–45 ClemsonWent the other way ✗

Projected 7.3-point title-game boost

Duke won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if Clemson won9% with the other result7.3-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance

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ESPN2

Impact 2

Virginia

at

Rooted for

California

Final · Virginia 31–21 CaliforniaWent the other way ✗

Projected 6.3-point title-game boost

Virginia won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if California won12% with the other result6.3-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance

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ESPN2

Impact 3

Georgia Tech

at

Rooted for

NC State

Final · Georgia Tech 36–48 NC StateWish granted ✓

Projected 3.7-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech lost, improving SMU's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection17% if NC State won13% with the other result3.7-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance

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ACC Network

Impact 4

Pittsburgh

at

Rooted for

Stanford

Final · Pittsburgh 35–20 StanfordWent the other way ✗

Projected 3.0-point title-game boost

Pittsburgh won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if Stanford won14% with the other result3-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance

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ACC Network

Impact 5

Rooted for

Wake Forest

at

Florida State

Final · Wake Forest 7–42 Florida StateWent the other way ✗

Projected 2.2-point title-game boost

Florida State won instead, so SMU did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Wake Forest won14% with the other result2.2-point differenceSMU ACC title-game chance

46 other games had little impact

North Carolina at Syracuse · ESPN

Louisville at Virginia Tech · The CW Network

UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU

James Madison at Texas State · ESPN2

Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2

Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN

Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2

Tulane at UTSA · ESPN

Memphis at Rice · ESPN2

Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN

Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC

Penn State at Ohio State · FOX

Rutgers at Illinois · NBC

UCF at Baylor · ESPNU

West Virginia at Houston · FS1

UAB at UConn · CBSSN

Army at Air Force · CBS

Navy at North Texas · ESPN2

Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+

Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT

East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+

New Mexico at UNLV

Georgia at Florida · ABC

Indiana at Maryland · CBS

Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN

Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN

Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX

Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN

New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+

Fresno State at Boise State · FS1

Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+

Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+

Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network

Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+

Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU

South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN

Purdue at Michigan · BTN

Arizona at Colorado · FS1

Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN

Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network

Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC

USC at Nebraska · NBC

Washington State at Oregon State · CBS

Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU

Cincinnati at Utah · ESPN

Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.