๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

North Texas Mean Green

10โ€“1 ยท 6โ€“1 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 14 ยท 2025
The Week 14 recap

North Texas beat Temple. Playoff odds moved from 40% to 60%.

Your game

Temple at North Texas
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American title-game chanceEntering97%Win100%Loss2%
Temple
Temple 4%North Texas 96%
North Texas
Final ยท Temple 25โ€“52 North TexasWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result North Texas wanted
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Impact 1
James Madison
at
Rooted for
Coastal Carolina
Final ยท James Madison 59โ€“10 Coastal CarolinaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 14.5-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection53% if Coastal Carolina won39% with the other result14-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
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Impact 2
SMU
at
Rooted for
California
Final ยท SMU 35โ€“38 CaliforniaWish granted โœ“
Projected 3.6-point playoff boost

California won, thinning out the at-large competition for North Texas's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection43% if California won39% with the other result3.6-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
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Impact 3
UNLV
at
Rooted for
Nevada
Final ยท UNLV 42โ€“17 NevadaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

UNLV won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection42% if Nevada won39% with the other result2.6-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
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Impact 4
Kent State
at
Rooted for
Northern Illinois
Final ยท Kent State 35โ€“31 Northern IllinoisWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Kent State won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection40% if Northern Illinois won38% with the other result1.8-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
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Impact 5
Rooted for
Rice
at
South Florida
Final ยท Rice 3โ€“52 South FloridaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.5-point title-game boost

South Florida won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection>99% if Rice won96% with the other result2.5-point differenceNorth Texas American title-game chance
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Impact 6
Rooted for
Ohio
at
Buffalo
Final ยท Ohio 31โ€“26 BuffaloWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Ohio won, thinning out the at-large competition for North Texas's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection40% if Ohio won38% with the other result1.6-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
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Impact 7
Kentucky
at
Rooted for
Louisville
Final ยท Kentucky 0โ€“41 LouisvilleWish granted โœ“
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Louisville won, thinning out the at-large competition for North Texas's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection40% if Louisville won39% with the other result1.3-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
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Impact 8
Rooted for
San Diego State
at
New Mexico
Final ยท San Diego State 17โ€“23 New MexicoWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

New Mexico won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection40% if San Diego State won39% with the other result1.2-point differenceNorth Texas playoff chance
58 other games had little impact
Bowling Green at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN2
Navy at Memphis ยท ESPN
Ole Miss at Mississippi State ยท ABC
Iowa at Nebraska ยท CBS
Utah at Kansas ยท ESPN
Air Force at Colorado State ยท FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech ยท ABC
Boise State at Utah State ยท CBS
Texas A&M at Texas ยท ABC
Indiana at Purdue ยท NBC
Arizona at Arizona State ยท FOX
Clemson at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Ohio State at Michigan ยท FOX
Miami at Pittsburgh ยท ABC
Houston at Baylor ยท TNT
Colorado at Kansas State ยท FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia ยท ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) ยท CBSSN
UCF at BYU ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State ยท ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse ยท The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State ยท ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State ยท ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa ยท ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas ยท SEC Network
LSU at Oklahoma ยท ABC
Vanderbilt at Tennessee ยท ESPN
Oregon at Washington ยท CBS
Wisconsin at Minnesota ยท FS1
Penn State at Rutgers ยท BTN
Wake Forest at Duke ยท ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU ยท FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty ยท CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Army at UTSA ยท ESPN+
Florida State at Florida ยท ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State ยท The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State ยท FS1
Virginia Tech at Virginia ยท ESPN
Alabama at Auburn ยท ABC
UCLA at USC ยท NBC
Northwestern at Illinois ยท FOX
North Carolina at NC State ยท ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane ยท ESPNU
Notre Dame at Stanford ยท ESPN
Fresno State at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:North Texas, then Coastal Carolina, California, Nevada, Northern Illinois, Rice, Ohio, Louisville, San Diego State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.