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North Texas Mean Green

4–0 · 1–0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 5 · 2025
55%
American title game
26%
Win the American
10%
Make the playoff
0%
First-round bye
avg seed 11.9
How the week went: playoff odds 10% → 8% · title-game odds 55% → 62%.
Playoff odds by week
12345

If North Texas wins out: 51% to win the American, 33% to make the playoff.

The Saturday rundown

ranked by what moves North Texas's path
Your game
…
… · ESPNU
South Alabama at North Texas

Your game. Beat South Alabama and your playoff odds are 12%; lose and they drop to 4%.

Final · South Alabama 22–36 North TexasWish granted ✓
Just win
Big swingsthese move your odds the most
…
… · ESPN2
Memphis at Florida Atlantic

American Athletic race: Memphis losing helps your spot in the standings.

Final · Memphis 55–26 Florida AtlanticWent the other way ✗
Root for Florida Atlantic+8.3 pp title-game odds
Worth a glancesmaller, but real
…
… · ESPN
Army at East Carolina

American Athletic race: Army losing helps your spot in the standings; you already beat Army; them losing again keeps them behind you.

Final · Army 6–28 East CarolinaWish granted ✓
Root for East Carolina+4.3 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPNU
Tulane at Tulsa

American Athletic race: Tulane losing helps your spot in the standings; you still play Tulane in week 15.

Final · Tulane 31–14 TulsaWent the other way ✗
Root for Tulsa+4.1 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison

Georgia Southern winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Georgia Southern 10–35 James MadisonWent the other way ✗
Root for Georgia Southern+2.4 pp playoff odds
…
… · CBSSN
Rice at Navy

American Athletic race: Navy losing helps your spot in the standings; Rice visits your schedule in week 13 — keep them ranked.

Final · Rice 13–21 NavyWent the other way ✗
Root for Rice+3.7 pp title-game odds
…
… · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss

Southern Miss winning thins out the at-large competition for your playoff spot.

Final · Jacksonville State 25–42 Southern MissWish granted ✓
Root for Southern Miss+1.6 pp playoff odds
44 more games that don't move your needle
Florida State at Virginia · ESPN
TCU at Arizona State · FOX
Houston at Oregon State · ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas · ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota · BTN
USC at Illinois · FOX
Duke at Syracuse · ACC Network
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest · ESPN
Louisville at Pittsburgh · ESPN2
Cincinnati at Kansas · TNT
UCF at Kansas State · FS1
Bowling Green at Ohio · CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe · ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss · ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M · ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern · BTN
Ohio State at Washington · CBS
Indiana at Iowa · Peacock
California at Boston College · ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State · ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia · FOX
UConn at Buffalo · ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Akron at Toledo · ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force · FS1
Tennessee at Mississippi State · SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State · ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Virginia Tech at NC State · The CW Network
Arizona at Iowa State · ESPN
Western Kentucky at Missouri State · ESPN+
Alabama at Georgia · ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri · ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State · NBC
Washington State at Colorado State · CBSSN
San José State at Stanford · ACC Network
App State at Boise State · FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina · SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP · ESPN+
BYU at Colorado · ESPN

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5).