๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

North Texas Mean Green

3โ€“0 ยท 0โ€“0 AMERICAN ATHLETIC
In the books
WEEK 4 ยท 2025
The Week 4 recap

North Texas beat Army. Playoff odds moved from 6% to 10%.

Your game

North Texas at Army
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
American title-game chanceEntering30%Win50%Loss19%
North Texas
North Texas 35%Army 65%
Army
Final ยท North Texas 45โ€“38 ArmyWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result North Texas wanted
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 1
Rooted for
Arkansas
at
Memphis
Final ยท Arkansas 31โ€“32 MemphisWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.7-point title-game boost

Memphis won instead, so North Texas did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection32% if Arkansas won28% with the other result3.7-point differenceNorth Texas American title-game chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 2
Tulane
at
Rooted for
Ole Miss
Final ยท Tulane 10โ€“45 Ole MissWish granted โœ“
Projected 3.0-point title-game boost

Tulane lost, improving North Texas's place in the American Athletic standings.

Entering-week projection30% if Ole Miss won27% with the other result3-point differenceNorth Texas American title-game chance
โ€ฆ
โ€ฆ
Impact 3
Rooted for
BYU
at
East Carolina
Final ยท BYU 34โ€“13 East CarolinaWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.4-point title-game boost

East Carolina lost, improving North Texas's place in the American Athletic standings.

Entering-week projection31% if BYU won28% with the other result2.4-point differenceNorth Texas American title-game chance
46 other games had little impact
Rice at Charlotte ยท ESPN
Tulsa at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN
Iowa at Rutgers ยท FOX
Maryland at Wisconsin ยท NBC
Syracuse at Clemson ยท ESPN
SMU at TCU ยท ESPN
Bowling Green at Louisville ยท ACC Network
Texas Tech at Utah ยท FOX
UNLV at Miami (OH) ยท ESPNU
UAB at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Oregon ยท BTN
Auburn at Oklahoma ยท ABC
Michigan at Nebraska ยท CBS
Purdue at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Kent State at Florida State ยท ACC Network
North Carolina at UCF ยท FOX
Ball State at UConn ยท CBSSN
James Madison at Liberty ยท ESPNU
Louisiana at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN+
Troy at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
Toledo at Western Michigan ยท ESPN+
NC State at Duke ยท ESPN2
Northern Illinois at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Temple at Georgia Tech ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Kansas ยท FS1
Delaware at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
South Carolina at Missouri ยท ESPN
Marshall at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
Nevada at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
Boise State at Air Force ยท CBSSN
Coastal Carolina at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
Florida at Miami ยท ABC
Georgia State at Vanderbilt ยท ESPNU
Washington at Washington State ยท CBS
Illinois at Indiana ยท NBC
Stanford at Virginia ยท ACC Network
Arizona State at Baylor ยท FOX
Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech ยท ESPN+
Sam Houston at Texas ยท ESPN+
UL Monroe at UTEP ยท ESPN+
UTSA at Colorado State ยท FS1
Wyoming at Colorado ยท ESPN
California at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Michigan State at USC ยท FOX
Fresno State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:North Texas, then Arkansas, Ole Miss, BYU.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 4, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 4). How the model works.