๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#18Virginia Cavaliers

9โ€“2 ยท 6โ€“1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 14 ยท 2025
The Week 14 recap

Virginia beat Virginia Tech. Playoff odds moved from 23% to 53%.

Your game

Virginia Tech at Virginia
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ACC title-game chanceEntering82%Win100%Loss<1%
Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech 18%Virginia 82%
Virginia
Final ยท Virginia Tech 7โ€“27 VirginiaWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Virginia wanted
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Impact 1
SMU
at
Rooted for
California
Final ยท SMU 35โ€“38 CaliforniaWish granted โœ“
Projected 14.9-point playoff boost

California won, making Virginia's earlier win over them look better.

Entering-week projection36% if California won22% with the other result15-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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Impact 2
Miami
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final ยท Miami 38โ€“7 PittsburghWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.9-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection27% if Pittsburgh won21% with the other result5.9-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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Impact 3
Wake Forest
at
Rooted for
Duke
Final ยท Wake Forest 32โ€“49 DukeWish granted โœ“
Projected 3.9-point playoff boost

Duke won, making Virginia's earlier win over them look better.

Entering-week projection24% if Duke won20% with the other result3.9-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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Impact 4
North Carolina
at
Rooted for
NC State
Final ยท North Carolina 19โ€“42 NC StateWish granted โœ“
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

North Carolina lost again, helping keep them behind Virginia.

Entering-week projection23% if NC State won21% with the other result2.1-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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Impact 5
Ole Miss
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final ยท Ole Miss 38โ€“19 Mississippi StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.9-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection25% if Mississippi State won23% with the other result1.9-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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Impact 6
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Washington
Final ยท Oregon 26โ€“14 WashingtonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection24% if Washington won22% with the other result1.5-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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Impact 7
Rooted for
LSU
at
Oklahoma
Final ยท LSU 13โ€“17 OklahomaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.5-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection24% if LSU won23% with the other result1.5-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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Impact 8
Iowa
at
Rooted for
Nebraska
Final ยท Iowa 40โ€“16 NebraskaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Iowa won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection24% if Nebraska won23% with the other result1.3-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
58 other games had little impact
Bowling Green at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan ยท ESPN2
Navy at Memphis ยท ESPN
Utah at Kansas ยท ESPN
Ohio at Buffalo ยท ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois ยท CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State ยท FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech ยท ABC
San Diego State at New Mexico ยท CBSSN
Temple at North Texas ยท ESPN
Boise State at Utah State ยท CBS
Texas A&M at Texas ยท ABC
Indiana at Purdue ยท NBC
Arizona at Arizona State ยท FOX
Kentucky at Louisville ยท ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Ohio State at Michigan ยท FOX
Houston at Baylor ยท TNT
Colorado at Kansas State ยท FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia ยท ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) ยท CBSSN
UCF at BYU ยท ESPN2
UTEP at Delaware ยท ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State ยท ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse ยท The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State ยท ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State ยท ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa ยท ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas ยท SEC Network
Vanderbilt at Tennessee ยท ESPN
Wisconsin at Minnesota ยท FS1
Penn State at Rutgers ยท BTN
Cincinnati at TCU ยท FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty ยท CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Army at UTSA ยท ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina ยท ESPNU
Florida State at Florida ยท ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State ยท The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State ยท FS1
Rice at South Florida ยท ESPN+
Alabama at Auburn ยท ABC
UCLA at USC ยท NBC
Northwestern at Illinois ยท FOX
Charlotte at Tulane ยท ESPNU
UNLV at Nevada ยท CBSSN
Notre Dame at Stanford ยท ESPN
Fresno State at San Josรฉ State ยท FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Virginia, then California, Pittsburgh, Duke, NC State, Mississippi State, Washington, LSU, Nebraska.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.