🏈 Fan Watch

#14Virginia Cavaliers

8–1 · 5–0 ACC
In the books
WEEK 11 · 2025
The Week 11 recap

Virginia lost to Wake Forest. Playoff odds moved from 29% to 10%.

Your game

Wake Forest at Virginia
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ESPN
ACC title-game chanceEntering71%Win80%Loss28%
Wake Forest
Wake Forest 17%Virginia 83%
Virginia
Final · Wake Forest 16–9 VirginiaWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Virginia wanted
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ESPN2
Impact 1
Rooted for
California
at
Louisville
Final · California 29–26 LouisvilleWish granted ✓
Projected 5.3-point playoff boost

California won, making Virginia's earlier win over them look better.

Entering-week projection34% if California won28% with the other result5.3-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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ACC Network
Impact 2
Rooted for
Florida State
at
Clemson
Final · Florida State 10–24 ClemsonWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.3-point title-game boost

Clemson won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection75% if Florida State won70% with the other result5.3-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
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CBSSN
Impact 3
Rooted for
Temple
at
Army
Final · Temple 13–14 ArmyWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Army won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection30% if Temple won29% with the other result1.7-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 4
Rooted for
Georgia Southern
at
App State
Final · Georgia Southern 25–23 App StateWish granted ✓
Projected 1.2-point playoff boost

Georgia Southern won, thinning out the at-large competition for Virginia's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection30% if Georgia Southern won28% with the other result1.2-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
46 other games had little impact
Washington at Wisconsin · BTN
SMU at Boston College · ACC Network
Duke at UConn · CBSSN
Massachusetts at Akron · CBSSN
Miami (OH) at Ohio · ESPN2
Kent State at Ball State · ESPNU
Northern Illinois at Toledo · ESPN2
UTSA at South Florida · ESPN
Houston at UCF · FS1
Northwestern at USC · FOX
Tulane at Memphis · ESPN
Georgia at Mississippi State · ESPN
Indiana at Penn State · FOX
BYU at Texas Tech · ABC
Colorado at West Virginia · TNT
James Madison at Marshall · ESPN2
Southern Miss at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Ohio State at Purdue · BTN
Missouri State at Liberty · ESPN+
Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan · ESPN+
UAB at Rice · ESPN+
Maryland at Rutgers · FS1
Louisiana Tech at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Middle Tennessee · ESPN+
Jacksonville State at UTEP · ESPN+
Charlotte at East Carolina · ESPN+
Tulsa at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Texas A&M at Missouri · ABC
Oregon at Iowa · CBS
Syracuse at Miami · ESPN
Kansas at Arizona · ESPN2
Iowa State at TCU · FOX
Auburn at Vanderbilt · SEC Network
Kennesaw State at New Mexico State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Coastal Carolina · ESPN+
Stanford at North Carolina · The CW Network
Texas State at Louisiana · ESPN+
Air Force at San José State · FS1
LSU at Alabama · ABC
Florida at Kentucky · SEC Network
Navy at Notre Dame · NBC
Nevada at Utah State · CBSSN
Nebraska at UCLA · FOX
UNLV at Colorado State · FS1
Sam Houston at Oregon State · The CW Network
San Diego State at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Virginia, then California, Florida State, Temple, Georgia Southern.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 11, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 11). How the model works.