๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

Virginia Cavaliers

3โ€“1 ยท 1โ€“0 ACC
In the books
WEEK 5 ยท 2025
The Week 5 recap

Virginia beat Florida State. Playoff odds moved from 2% to 4%.

Your game

Florida State at Virginia
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ACC title-game chanceEntering12%Win18%Loss3%
Florida State
Florida State 40%Virginia 60%
Virginia
Final ยท Florida State 38โ€“46 VirginiaWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Virginia wanted
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Impact 1
Georgia Tech
at
Rooted for
Wake Forest
Final ยท Georgia Tech 30โ€“29 Wake ForestWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.5-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection14% if Wake Forest won11% with the other result2.5-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
49 other games had little impact
Virginia Tech at NC State ยท The CW Network
Louisville at Pittsburgh ยท ESPN2
Army at East Carolina ยท ESPN
TCU at Arizona State ยท FOX
Houston at Oregon State ยท ESPN
Notre Dame at Arkansas ยท ABC
Rutgers at Minnesota ยท BTN
USC at Illinois ยท FOX
Duke at Syracuse ยท ACC Network
Cincinnati at Kansas ยท TNT
UCF at Kansas State ยท FS1
South Alabama at North Texas ยท ESPNU
Bowling Green at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Utah State at Vanderbilt ยท SEC Network
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan ยท ESPN+
Georgia Southern at James Madison ยท ESPN+
Arkansas State at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
LSU at Ole Miss ยท ABC
Auburn at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
UCLA at Northwestern ยท BTN
Ohio State at Washington ยท CBS
Indiana at Iowa ยท Peacock
California at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Baylor at Oklahoma State ยท ESPN2
Utah at West Virginia ยท FOX
UConn at Buffalo ยท ESPN+
San Diego State at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN+
Rice at Navy ยท CBSSN
Akron at Toledo ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at New Mexico
Hawai'i at Air Force ยท FS1
Tulane at Tulsa ยท ESPNU
Tennessee at Mississippi State ยท SEC Network
Middle Tennessee at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Old Dominion ยท ESPN+
Arizona at Iowa State ยท ESPN
Jacksonville State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Memphis at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN2
Alabama at Georgia ยท ABC
Massachusetts at Missouri ยท ESPNU
Oregon at Penn State ยท NBC
Washington State at Colorado State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at Stanford ยท ACC Network
App State at Boise State ยท FS1
Kentucky at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
Marshall at Louisiana ยท ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at UTEP ยท ESPN+
BYU at Colorado ยท ESPN
The rooting list was:Virginia, then Wake Forest.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 5, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 5). How the model works.