🏈 Fan Watch

#15Virginia Cavaliers

7–1 · 4–0 ACC
In the books
WEEK 10 · 2025
The Week 10 recap

Virginia beat California. Playoff odds moved from 19% to 29%.

Your game

Virginia at California
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ESPN2
ACC title-game chanceEntering41%Win55%Loss16%
Virginia
Virginia 63%California 37%
California
Final · Virginia 31–21 CaliforniaWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Virginia wanted
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ESPN
Impact 1
Rooted for
North Carolina
at
Syracuse
Final · North Carolina 27–10 SyracuseWish granted ✓
Projected 8.1-point title-game boost

Syracuse lost, improving Virginia's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection46% if North Carolina won38% with the other result8.1-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
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ESPN2
Impact 2
Georgia Tech
at
Rooted for
NC State
Final · Georgia Tech 36–48 NC StateWish granted ✓
Projected 6.5-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech lost, improving Virginia's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection45% if NC State won38% with the other result6.5-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
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ACC Network
Impact 3
Pittsburgh
at
Rooted for
Stanford
Final · Pittsburgh 35–20 StanfordWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.8-point title-game boost

Pittsburgh won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection46% if Stanford won40% with the other result5.8-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
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ACC Network
Impact 4
Duke
at
Rooted for
Clemson
Final · Duke 46–45 ClemsonWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.7-point title-game boost

Duke won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection42% if Clemson won36% with the other result5.7-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
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ESPN
Impact 5
Miami
at
Rooted for
SMU
Final · Miami 20–26 SMUWish granted ✓
Projected 4.5-point title-game boost

Miami lost, improving Virginia's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection43% if SMU won39% with the other result4.5-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
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The CW Network
Impact 6
Louisville
at
Rooted for
Virginia Tech
Final · Louisville 28–16 Virginia TechWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.6-point title-game boost

Louisville won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection43% if Virginia Tech won40% with the other result3.6-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
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ESPN
Impact 7
Cincinnati
at
Rooted for
Utah
Final · Cincinnati 14–45 UtahWish granted ✓
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

Utah won, thinning out the at-large competition for Virginia's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection19% if Utah won17% with the other result1.3-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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ACC Network
Impact 8
Wake Forest
at
Rooted for
Florida State
Final · Wake Forest 7–42 Florida StateWish granted ✓
Projected 1.9-point title-game boost

Wake Forest lost, improving Virginia's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection41% if Florida State won39% with the other result1.9-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
43 other games had little impact
New Mexico at UNLV
UTEP at Kennesaw State · ESPNU
James Madison at Texas State · ESPN2
Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee · ESPN2
Florida International at Missouri State · CBSSN
Marshall at Coastal Carolina · ESPN2
Tulane at UTSA · ESPN
Memphis at Rice · ESPN2
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Vanderbilt at Texas · ABC
Penn State at Ohio State · FOX
Rutgers at Illinois · NBC
UCF at Baylor · ESPNU
West Virginia at Houston · FS1
UAB at UConn · CBSSN
Army at Air Force · CBS
Navy at North Texas · ESPN2
Buffalo at Bowling Green · ESPN+
Arizona State at Iowa State · TNT
East Carolina at Temple · ESPN+
Georgia at Florida · ABC
Indiana at Maryland · CBS
Michigan State at Minnesota · BTN
Notre Dame at Boston College · ESPN
Texas Tech at Kansas State · FOX
Delaware at Liberty · CBSSN
New Mexico State at Western Kentucky · ESPN+
Fresno State at Boise State · FS1
Old Dominion at UL Monroe · ESPN+
Louisiana at South Alabama · ESPN+
Mississippi State at Arkansas · SEC Network
Oklahoma State at Kansas · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Western Michigan · ESPNU
South Carolina at Ole Miss · ESPN
Purdue at Michigan · BTN
Arizona at Colorado · FS1
Wyoming at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Auburn · SEC Network
Oklahoma at Tennessee · ABC
USC at Nebraska · NBC
Washington State at Oregon State · CBS
Arkansas State at Troy · ESPNU
Hawai'i at San José State · CBSSN
The rooting list was:Virginia, then North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Clemson, SMU, Virginia Tech, Utah, Florida State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 10, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 10). How the model works.