๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#19Virginia Cavaliers

9โ€“2 ยท 6โ€“1 ACC
In the books
WEEK 13 ยท 2025
The Week 13 recap

Virginia was off. Playoff odds moved from 30% to 23%.

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Virginia wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Florida State
at
NC State
Final ยท Florida State 11โ€“21 NC StateWent the other way โœ—
Projected 15.1-point title-game boost

NC State won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection87% if Florida State won72% with the other result15-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Louisville
at
SMU
Final ยท Louisville 6โ€“38 SMUWent the other way โœ—
Projected 8.8-point playoff boost

SMU won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if Louisville won27% with the other result8.8-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
at
Georgia Tech
Final ยท Pittsburgh 42โ€“28 Georgia TechWish granted โœ“
Projected 10.6-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech lost, improving Virginia's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection87% if Pittsburgh won76% with the other result11-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
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Impact 4
Miami
at
Rooted for
Virginia Tech
Final ยท Miami 34โ€“17 Virginia TechWent the other way โœ—
Projected 5.4-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection35% if Virginia Tech won29% with the other result5.4-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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Impact 5
Rooted for
Duke
at
North Carolina
Final ยท Duke 32โ€“25 North CarolinaWish granted โœ“
Projected 3.5-point playoff boost

Duke won, making Virginia's earlier win over them look better.

Entering-week projection31% if Duke won27% with the other result3.5-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
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Impact 6
Rooted for
Washington State
at
James Madison
Final ยท Washington State 20โ€“24 James MadisonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

James Madison won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection32% if Washington State won30% with the other result2.1-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
54 other games had little impact
Akron at Bowling Green ยท ESPNU
Massachusetts at Ohio ยท CBSSN
Western Michigan at Northern Illinois ยท ESPN2
Miami (OH) at Buffalo ยท ESPN2
Central Michigan at Kent State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana at Arkansas State ยท ESPN
Hawai'i at UNLV ยท FS1
Missouri at Oklahoma ยท ABC
Minnesota at Northwestern ยท BTN
Rutgers at Ohio State ยท FOX
Delaware at Wake Forest ยท ACC Network
Kansas at Iowa State ยท FS1
Tulsa at Army ยท CBSSN
Charlotte at Georgia ยท SEC Network
Baylor at Arizona ยท TNT
Old Dominion at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Missouri State at Kennesaw State ยท ESPN+
Nevada at Wyoming
Ball State at Toledo ยท ESPN+
Marshall at App State ยท ESPN+
UConn at Florida Atlantic ยท ESPN+
Liberty at Louisiana Tech ยท ESPN+
Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at UTEP ยท ESPN+
South Florida at UAB ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at Texas ยท ABC
Kentucky at Vanderbilt ยท ESPN
USC at Oregon ยท CBS
Michigan State at Iowa ยท FS1
Syracuse at Notre Dame ยท NBC
Jacksonville State at Florida International ยท CBSSN
Southern Miss at South Alabama ยท ESPN+
East Carolina at UTSA ยท ESPN+
Tulane at Temple ยท ESPNU
Michigan at Maryland ยท BTN
TCU at Houston ยท FOX
Oklahoma State at UCF ยท ESPN+
Kansas State at Utah ยท ESPN2
Georgia State at Troy ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina ยท SEC Network
UL Monroe at Texas State ยท ESPN+
Nebraska at Penn State ยท NBC
New Mexico at Air Force ยท CBSSN
Colorado State at Boise State ยท FS1
Tennessee at Florida ยท ABC
Illinois at Wisconsin ยท BTN
California at Stanford ยท ACC Network
North Texas at Rice ยท ESPNU
Western Kentucky at LSU ยท SEC Network
BYU at Cincinnati ยท FOX
Arizona State at Colorado ยท ESPN2
Washington at UCLA ยท NBC
Utah State at Fresno State ยท CBSSN
San Josรฉ State at San Diego State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:Virginia is off, then Florida State, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, Duke, Washington State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 13, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 13). How the model works.