🏈 Fan Watch

#24Virginia Cavaliers

4–1 · 2–0 ACC
In the books
WEEK 6 · 2025
The Week 6 recap

Virginia beat Louisville. Playoff odds moved from 4% to 10%.

Your game

Virginia at Louisville
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ESPN2
ACC title-game chanceEntering16%Win43%Loss10%
Virginia
Virginia 20%Louisville 80%
Louisville
Final · Virginia 30–27 LouisvilleWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Virginia wanted
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ABC
Impact 1
Miami
at
Rooted for
Florida State
Final · Miami 28–22 Florida StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.2-point title-game boost

Miami won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection21% if Florida State won15% with the other result6.2-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
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ESPN
Impact 2
Duke
at
Rooted for
California
Final · Duke 45–21 CaliforniaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.2-point title-game boost

Duke won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if California won15% with the other result2.2-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
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ACC Network
Impact 3
Rooted for
Syracuse
at
SMU
Final · Syracuse 18–31 SMUWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.0-point title-game boost

SMU won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if Syracuse won16% with the other result2-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
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ESPN
Impact 4
Clemson
at
Rooted for
North Carolina
Final · Clemson 38–10 North CarolinaWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.9-point title-game boost

Clemson won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if North Carolina won16% with the other result1.9-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
45 other games had little impact
Sam Houston at New Mexico State · CBSSN
Western Kentucky at Delaware · CBSSN
Charlotte at South Florida · ESPN2
New Mexico at San José State · FS1
West Virginia at BYU · ESPN
Colorado State at San Diego State · CBSSN
Kentucky at Georgia · ABC
Wisconsin at Michigan · FOX
Illinois at Purdue · BTN
Boston College at Pittsburgh · ACC Network
Kansas State at Baylor · ESPN+
Iowa State at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Air Force at Navy · CBS
Army at UAB · ESPNU
Ohio at Ball State · CBSSN
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech · The CW Network
UTSA at Temple · ESPN+
Western Michigan at Massachusetts · ESPN+
Oklahoma State at Arizona · truTV
Vanderbilt at Alabama · ABC
Texas at Florida · ESPN
Penn State at UCLA · CBS
Washington at Maryland · BTN
UL Monroe at Northwestern · BTN
Oregon State at App State · ESPN+
Boise State at Notre Dame · NBC
Florida International at UConn · CBSSN
James Madison at Georgia State · ESPN+
Central Michigan at Akron · ESPN+
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo · ESPN+
Miami (OH) at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Kent State at Oklahoma · SEC Network
Michigan State at Nebraska · FS1
Texas State at Arkansas State · ESPNU
Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Texas Tech at Houston · ESPN
UNLV at Wyoming · CBSSN
South Alabama at Troy · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Rice · ESPN+
Mississippi State at Texas A&M · SEC Network
Minnesota at Ohio State · NBC
Colorado at TCU · FOX
Kansas at UCF · ESPN2
Tulsa at Memphis · ESPNU
Nevada at Fresno State · CBSSN
The rooting list was:Virginia, then Florida State, California, Syracuse, North Carolina.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 6, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 6). How the model works.