🏈 Fan Watch

#16Virginia Cavaliers

6–1 · 3–0 ACC
In the books
WEEK 9 · 2025
The Week 9 recap

Virginia beat North Carolina. Playoff odds moved from 12% to 19%.

Your game

Virginia at North Carolina
…
…
ACC Network
ACC title-game chanceEntering29%Win37%Loss9%
Virginia
Virginia 71%North Carolina 29%
North Carolina
Final · Virginia 17–16 North CarolinaWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Virginia wanted
…
…
The CW Network
Impact 1
SMU
at
Rooted for
Wake Forest
Final · SMU 12–13 Wake ForestWish granted ✓
Projected 9.1-point title-game boost

SMU lost, improving Virginia's place in the ACC standings.

Entering-week projection36% if Wake Forest won27% with the other result9.1-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 2
Rooted for
Stanford
at
Miami
Final · Stanford 7–42 MiamiWent the other way ✗
Projected 7.1-point title-game boost

Miami won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection36% if Stanford won29% with the other result7.1-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 3
Rooted for
Syracuse
at
Georgia Tech
Final · Syracuse 16–41 Georgia TechWent the other way ✗
Projected 6.4-point title-game boost

Georgia Tech won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection34% if Syracuse won28% with the other result6.4-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
…
…
FS1
Impact 4
Rooted for
Wisconsin
at
Oregon
Final · Wisconsin 7–21 OregonWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.7-point playoff boost

Oregon won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Wisconsin won12% with the other result3.7-point differenceVirginia playoff chance
…
…
ACC Network
Impact 5
Rooted for
NC State
at
Pittsburgh
Final · NC State 34–53 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.0-point title-game boost

Pittsburgh won instead, so Virginia did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection31% if NC State won29% with the other result2-point differenceVirginia ACC title-game chance
47 other games had little impact
Kennesaw State at Florida International · ESPNU
Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech · CBSSN
Middle Tennessee at Delaware · ESPN2
Missouri State at New Mexico State · CBSSN
South Alabama at Georgia State · ESPN2
North Texas at Charlotte · ESPN2
California at Virginia Tech · ESPN
Boise State at Nevada · CBSSN
Ole Miss at Oklahoma · ABC
Northwestern at Nebraska · FS1
Rutgers at Purdue · BTN
UCLA at Indiana · FOX
Kansas State at Kansas · TNT
App State at Old Dominion · ESPNU
South Florida at Memphis · ESPN2
Bowling Green at Kent State · ESPN+
Ohio at Eastern Michigan · CBSSN
Auburn at Arkansas · SEC Network
Akron at Buffalo · ESPN+
UConn at Rice · ESPN+
Utah State at New Mexico
Alabama at South Carolina · ABC
Missouri at Vanderbilt · ESPN
Illinois at Washington · BTN
Minnesota at Iowa · CBS
Toledo at Washington State · The CW Network
BYU at Iowa State · FOX
San Diego State at Fresno State · FS1
UL Monroe at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Florida Atlantic at Navy · CBSSN
Temple at Tulsa · ESPN+
Ball State at Northern Illinois · ESPN+
Massachusetts at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Western Michigan at Miami (OH) · ESPN+
Baylor at Cincinnati · ESPN2
Oklahoma State at Texas Tech · ESPNU
Texas at Mississippi State · SEC Network
TCU at West Virginia · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Arkansas State · ESPN+
Louisiana at Troy · ESPN+
Texas A&M at LSU · ABC
Michigan at Michigan State · NBC
Boston College at Louisville · ACC Network
Colorado State at Wyoming · CBSSN
Tennessee at Kentucky · SEC Network
Houston at Arizona State · ESPN2
Colorado at Utah · ESPN
The rooting list was:Virginia, then Wake Forest, Stanford, Syracuse, Wisconsin, NC State.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 9, anchored to the AP Top 25 (week 9). How the model works.