🏈 Fan Watch

#15Michigan Wolverines

9–2 · 7–1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
The Week 14 recap

Michigan lost to Ohio State. Playoff odds moved from 15% to 2%.

Your game

Ohio State at Michigan
…
…
FOX
playoff chanceEntering15%Win52%Loss6%
Ohio State
Ohio State 80%Michigan 20%
Michigan
Final · Ohio State 27–9 MichiganWent the other way ✗

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Michigan wanted
…
…
CBS
Impact 1
Oregon
at
Rooted for
Washington
Final · Oregon 26–14 WashingtonWent the other way ✗
Projected 19.7-point title-game boost

Oregon won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection20% if Washington won<1% with the other result20-point differenceMichigan Big Ten title-game chance
…
…
NBC
Impact 2
Indiana
at
Rooted for
Purdue
Final · Indiana 56–3 PurdueWent the other way ✗
Projected 9.4-point title-game boost

Indiana won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection14% if Purdue won5% with the other result9.4-point differenceMichigan Big Ten title-game chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 3
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Stanford
Final · Notre Dame 49–20 StanfordWent the other way ✗
Projected 5.0-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection20% if Stanford won15% with the other result5-point differenceMichigan playoff chance
…
…
ABC
Impact 4
Ole Miss
at
Rooted for
Mississippi State
Final · Ole Miss 38–19 Mississippi StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.6-point playoff boost

Ole Miss won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection19% if Mississippi State won15% with the other result3.6-point differenceMichigan playoff chance
…
…
ABC
Impact 5
Alabama
at
Rooted for
Auburn
Final · Alabama 27–20 AuburnWent the other way ✗
Projected 3.2-point playoff boost

Alabama won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if Auburn won15% with the other result3.2-point differenceMichigan playoff chance
…
…
ABC
Impact 6
Rooted for
LSU
at
Oklahoma
Final · LSU 13–17 OklahomaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

Oklahoma won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if LSU won15% with the other result2.6-point differenceMichigan playoff chance
…
…
ESPN2
Impact 7
Rooted for
UCF
at
BYU
Final · UCF 21–41 BYUWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.6-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection18% if UCF won15% with the other result2.6-point differenceMichigan playoff chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 8
Rooted for
Virginia Tech
at
Virginia
Final · Virginia Tech 7–27 VirginiaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.3-point playoff boost

Virginia won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if Virginia Tech won15% with the other result2.3-point differenceMichigan playoff chance
…
…
ESPN
Impact 9
Vanderbilt
at
Rooted for
Tennessee
Final · Vanderbilt 45–24 TennesseeWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.8-point playoff boost

Vanderbilt won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection16% if Tennessee won14% with the other result1.8-point differenceMichigan playoff chance
…
…
ABC
Impact 10
Miami
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final · Miami 38–7 PittsburghWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.6-point playoff boost

Miami won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection17% if Pittsburgh won15% with the other result1.6-point differenceMichigan playoff chance
56 other games had little impact
Texas A&M at Texas · ABC
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Iowa at Nebraska · CBS
Utah at Kansas · ESPN
Ohio at Buffalo · ESPNU
Kent State at Northern Illinois · CBSSN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia · ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
James Madison at Coastal Carolina · ESPNU
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
UCLA at USC · NBC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
North Carolina at NC State · ACC Network
Charlotte at Tulane · ESPNU
SMU at California · ESPN2
UNLV at Nevada · CBSSN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:Michigan, then Washington, Purdue, Stanford, Mississippi State, Auburn, LSU, UCF, Virginia Tech, Tennessee, Pittsburgh.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.