๐Ÿˆ Fan Watch

#18Michigan Wolverines

7โ€“2 ยท 5โ€“1 BIG TEN
In the books
WEEK 12 ยท 2025
The Week 12 recap

Michigan beat Northwestern. Playoff odds moved from 6% to 5%.

Your game

Michigan at Northwestern
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playoff chanceEntering6%Win8%Loss<1%
Michigan
Michigan 83%Northwestern 17%
Northwestern
Final ยท Michigan 24โ€“22 NorthwesternWish granted โœ“

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result Michigan wanted
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Impact 1
Rooted for
Minnesota
at
Oregon
Final ยท Minnesota 13โ€“42 OregonWent the other way โœ—
Projected 9.8-point title-game boost

Oregon won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection13% if Minnesota won4% with the other result9.8-point differenceMichigan Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 2
Rooted for
Iowa
at
USC
Final ยท Iowa 21โ€“26 USCWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.6-point title-game boost

USC won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection6% if Iowa won3% with the other result3.6-point differenceMichigan Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 3
Rooted for
Wisconsin
at
Indiana
Final ยท Wisconsin 7โ€“31 IndianaWent the other way โœ—
Projected 3.2-point title-game boost

Indiana won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection7% if Wisconsin won4% with the other result3.2-point differenceMichigan Big Ten title-game chance
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Impact 4
Notre Dame
at
Rooted for
Pittsburgh
Final ยท Notre Dame 37โ€“15 PittsburghWent the other way โœ—
Projected 1.7-point playoff boost

Notre Dame won instead, so Michigan did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection8% if Pittsburgh won6% with the other result1.7-point differenceMichigan playoff chance
53 other games had little impact
Kent State at Akron ยท ESPNU
Ohio at Western Michigan ยท ESPN2
Buffalo at Central Michigan ยท CBSSN
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts ยท ESPNU
Toledo at Miami (OH) ยท ESPN2
Troy at Old Dominion ยท ESPN
Clemson at Louisville ยท ESPN
South Carolina at Texas A&M ยท ESPN
Arizona at Cincinnati ยท FS1
Kansas State at Oklahoma State ยท ESPNU
Air Force at UConn ยท CBSSN
UTSA at Charlotte ยท ESPN+
South Florida at Navy ยท ESPN2
Eastern Michigan at Ball State ยท ESPN+
Arkansas at LSU ยท SEC Network
Oregon State at Tulsa ยท The CW Network
West Virginia at Arizona State ยท truTV
Marshall at Georgia State ยท ESPN+
North Texas at UAB ยท ESPN+
UTEP at Missouri State ยท ESPN+
Colorado State at New Mexico
Oklahoma at Alabama ยท ABC
Penn State at Michigan State ยท CBS
Maryland at Illinois ยท FS1
Georgia Tech at Boston College ยท ACC Network
Virginia at Duke ยท ESPN2
NC State at Miami ยท ESPN
UCF at Texas Tech ยท FOX
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky ยท ESPN+
San Josรฉ State at Nevada ยท CBSSN
App State at James Madison ยท ESPN+
South Alabama at UL Monroe ยท ESPN+
Texas State at Southern Miss ยท ESPN+
Memphis at East Carolina ยท ESPNU
Florida Atlantic at Tulane ยท ESPN+
New Mexico State at Tennessee ยท SEC Network
North Carolina at Wake Forest ยท The CW Network
Liberty at Florida International ยท ESPN+
Coastal Carolina at Georgia Southern ยท ESPN+
Florida at Ole Miss ยท ESPN
Purdue at Washington ยท FS1
Utah at Baylor ยท ESPN2
Delaware at Sam Houston ยท ESPN+
Utah State at UNLV ยท CBSSN
Texas at Georgia ยท ABC
UCLA at Ohio State ยท NBC
Virginia Tech at Florida State ยท ACC Network
Mississippi State at Missouri ยท SEC Network
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State ยท ESPNU
Louisiana Tech at Washington State ยท The CW Network
TCU at BYU ยท ESPN
Boise State at San Diego State ยท CBSSN
Wyoming at Fresno State ยท FS1
The rooting list was:Michigan, then Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 12, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 12). How the model works.