🏈 Fan Watch

James Madison Dukes

10–1 · 7–0 SUN BELT
In the books
WEEK 14 · 2025
The Week 14 recap

James Madison beat Coastal Carolina. Playoff odds moved from 31% to 43%.

James Madison has clinched a spot in the Sun Belt championship game.

Your game

James Madison at Coastal Carolina
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ESPNU
playoff chanceEntering31%Win33%Loss4%
James Madison
James Madison 96%Coastal Carolina 4%
Coastal Carolina
Final · James Madison 59–10 Coastal CarolinaWish granted ✓

Other impactful games

the highlighted team was the result James Madison wanted
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ESPNU
Impact 1
Rooted for
Charlotte
at
Tulane
Final · Charlotte 0–27 TulaneWent the other way ✗
Projected 10.3-point playoff boost

Tulane won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection41% if Charlotte won31% with the other result10-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 2
SMU
at
Rooted for
California
Final · SMU 35–38 CaliforniaWish granted ✓
Projected 5.3-point playoff boost

California won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection36% if California won31% with the other result5.3-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance
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NBC
Impact 3
UCLA
at
Rooted for
USC
Final · UCLA 10–29 USCWish granted ✓
Projected 3.6-point playoff boost

USC won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection31% if USC won28% with the other result3.6-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance
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CBSSN
Impact 4
UNLV
at
Rooted for
Nevada
Final · UNLV 42–17 NevadaWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.4-point playoff boost

UNLV won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection33% if Nevada won31% with the other result2.4-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance
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CBSSN
Impact 5
Rooted for
Kent State
at
Northern Illinois
Final · Kent State 35–31 Northern IllinoisWish granted ✓
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

Kent State won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection33% if Kent State won31% with the other result2.1-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance
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ESPN2
Impact 6
Rooted for
UCF
at
BYU
Final · UCF 21–41 BYUWent the other way ✗
Projected 2.1-point playoff boost

BYU won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection33% if UCF won31% with the other result2.1-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance
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ESPNU
Impact 7
Rooted for
Ohio
at
Buffalo
Final · Ohio 31–26 BuffaloWish granted ✓
Projected 1.4-point playoff boost

Ohio won, thinning out the at-large competition for James Madison's playoff spot.

Entering-week projection32% if Ohio won30% with the other result1.4-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance
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ACC Network
Impact 8
Rooted for
North Carolina
at
NC State
Final · North Carolina 19–42 NC StateWent the other way ✗
Projected 1.3-point playoff boost

NC State won instead, so James Madison did not get the result it wanted.

Entering-week projection32% if North Carolina won31% with the other result1.3-point differenceJames Madison playoff chance
58 other games had little impact
Miami at Pittsburgh · ABC
Boise State at Utah State · CBS
Bowling Green at Massachusetts · ESPNU
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan · ESPN2
Navy at Memphis · ESPN
Ole Miss at Mississippi State · ABC
Iowa at Nebraska · CBS
Utah at Kansas · ESPN
Air Force at Colorado State · FS1
Georgia at Georgia Tech · ABC
San Diego State at New Mexico · CBSSN
Temple at North Texas · ESPN
Texas A&M at Texas · ABC
Indiana at Purdue · NBC
Arizona at Arizona State · FOX
Kentucky at Louisville · ACC Network
Clemson at South Carolina · SEC Network
Ohio State at Michigan · FOX
Houston at Baylor · TNT
Colorado at Kansas State · FS1
Iowa State at Oklahoma State · ESPNU
Texas Tech at West Virginia · ESPN
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic · ESPN+
Toledo at Central Michigan · ESPN+
Ball State at Miami (OH) · CBSSN
UTEP at Delaware · ESPN+
Florida International at Sam Houston · ESPN+
Georgia Southern at Marshall · ESPN+
Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State · ESPN+
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State · ESPN+
Georgia State at Old Dominion · ESPN+
Arkansas State at App State · ESPN+
Boston College at Syracuse · The CW Network
Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State · ESPN+
UL Monroe at Louisiana · ESPN+
South Alabama at Texas State · ESPN+
UAB at Tulsa · ESPN+
Missouri at Arkansas · SEC Network
LSU at Oklahoma · ABC
Vanderbilt at Tennessee · ESPN
Oregon at Washington · CBS
Wisconsin at Minnesota · FS1
Penn State at Rutgers · BTN
Wake Forest at Duke · ACC Network
Cincinnati at TCU · FOX
Kennesaw State at Liberty · CBSSN
Troy at Southern Miss · ESPN+
Army at UTSA · ESPN+
Florida State at Florida · ESPN2
Oregon State at Washington State · The CW Network
Maryland at Michigan State · FS1
Virginia Tech at Virginia · ESPN
Rice at South Florida · ESPN+
Alabama at Auburn · ABC
Northwestern at Illinois · FOX
Notre Dame at Stanford · ESPN
Fresno State at San José State · FS1
Wyoming at Hawai'i
The rooting list was:James Madison, then Charlotte, California, USC, Nevada, Kent State, UCF, Ohio, North Carolina.

Based on 50,000 season simulations entering week 14, anchored to the Playoff Committee Rankings (week 14). How the model works.